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1 Will McBride, et al., How to Rein in the National Debt 1 (2023)

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*6TAX FOUNDATION




How to Rein in the National Debt




Will McBride   Vice President   of Federal Tax Policy
Erica York     Senior   Economist,  Research Manager
Alex Durante   Economist

September   2023

Key Findings

•   The federal government's debt is $33 trillion and rising; budget deficits are projected to grow substan-
    tially over the next decade, reaching $2.7 trillion in 2033, or 6.4 percent of gross domestic product
    (GDP).
 •  Debt held by the public will rise steadily from 97 percent of GDP in 2022 to 115 percent in 2033-the
    highest level on record.
 •  Now  is the time for lawmakers to focus on long-term fiscal sustainability, as further delay will only
    make an eventual fiscal reckoning that much harder and more painful. Congressional leaders should
    follow through on convening a fiscal commission to deal with the long-term budgetary challenges
    facing the country.
 •  International experiences of successful debt reductions suggest gradual, spending-focused policies.
    Any serious debt reduction effort must acknowledge the need to rein in the largest mandatory spend-
    ing programs, Social Security and Medicare, which constitute a growing share of the budget and are
    the primary drivers of long-run deficits.
 •  If lawmakers consider tax increases in a debt reduction effort, they should focus on less distortionary
    taxes, such as consumption taxes, or tax reforms that rationalize tax expenditures and broaden the tax
    base.














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