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40 J. Offender Rehab. 1 (2004-2005)

handle is hein.journals/wjor40 and id is 1 raw text is: 

Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Vol. 40 (1/2), 2004. Pp. 1-22.
@ 2004 by The Ha worth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1300/JO76v40n01_01

North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR):

Reliability and Predictive Validity

with   Juvenile Offenders

Columbia University

University of North Carolina

University of North Carolina

Wake Forest University

ABSTRACT Actuarial risk assessment instruments are used increasingly
in juvenile justice to classify youths according to their risk of recidivism.
The purpose of this article is to describe the results of two studies of one in-
strument: the North  Carolina Assessment  of Risk  (NCAR).  In the first
study, the inter-rater reliability of the risk assessment instrument was esti-
mated  with a sample  of 175 court counselors who  rated videotaped  vi-
gnettes of juvenile offenders. In the second study, predictive validity was
assessed prospectively by following a statewide sample of 464 delinquent
youths for 12 months. Findings indicate that the risk assessment instrument
increases reliability as compared to clinical judgment. Moreover,   risk
scores are correlated significantly with rearrest. However, analyses also
show  that relationships between  risk scores  and recidivism  vary for
subgroups  based on gender and race/ethnicity. Though challenges remain

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