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40 J. Offender Rehab. 1 (2004-2005)

handle is hein.journals/wjor40 and id is 1 raw text is: 






Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, Vol. 40 (1/2), 2004. Pp. 1-22.
http://www.haworthpress.com/web/JOR
@ 2004 by The Ha worth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1300/JO76v40n01_01




North Carolina Assessment of Risk (NCAR):

Reliability and Predictive Validity

with   Juvenile Offenders


CRAIG S. SCHWALBE
Columbia University

MARK W. FRASER
University of North Carolina

STEVEN H. DAY
University of North Carolina

ELIZABETH MAYFIELD ARNOLD
Wake Forest University


ABSTRACT Actuarial risk assessment instruments are used increasingly
in juvenile justice to classify youths according to their risk of recidivism.
The purpose of this article is to describe the results of two studies of one in-
strument: the North  Carolina Assessment  of Risk  (NCAR).  In the first
study, the inter-rater reliability of the risk assessment instrument was esti-
mated  with a sample  of 175 court counselors who  rated videotaped  vi-
gnettes of juvenile offenders. In the second study, predictive validity was
assessed prospectively by following a statewide sample of 464 delinquent
youths for 12 months. Findings indicate that the risk assessment instrument
increases reliability as compared to clinical judgment. Moreover,   risk
scores are correlated significantly with rearrest. However, analyses also
show  that relationships between  risk scores  and recidivism  vary for
subgroups  based on gender and race/ethnicity. Though challenges remain

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