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46 U. Pitt. L. Rev. 925 (1984-1985)
Of Probativity and Probability: Statistics, Scientific Evidence, and the Calculus of Chance at Trial

handle is hein.journals/upitt46 and id is 949 raw text is: OF PROBATIVITY AND PROBABILITY: STATISTICS, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE, AND THE CALCULUS OF CHANCE AT TRIALt Leonard R. Jaffee* Professor Jaffee vigorously challenges the role of statistical proof in litigationL In a style that a lawyer-reader can understand, he examines the limitations and usefulness ofprobabil- istic proof vis-d-vis the concepts of relevance, corroboration and sufficiency. He treats in depth the question of proof of paternity by HLA blood testing-a problem that demonstrates the dangers in this field. Finally, he offers practical suggestions for the handling of probabilistic proofs and related evidence. Professor Jaffee concludes that probability is irrelevant as proof of an actualistic element of a claim or affirmative defense and that no calculus of probability is competent to measure the sufficiency or weight of litigational evidence TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ........................................ 927 II. THE GAME-ITS ORGANIZATION, RULES, NORMS, AND PRINCIPLES, AND THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY .......... 930 A. Materiality, Relevance, Sufficiency, and the Stages of Trial and Examination ............................. 930 1. The Importance of Accounting for the Rules and Organization of the Game ................. 930 2. The Stages of Trial and Examination, their Functions, and the Value of their Organization.. 931 B. Sufficiency and Probability-The Appropriate Relationship ....................................... 934 1. The Problem's Basic Contours .................. 934 2. The Legal Measures of Sufficiency of Proofs: Presumptions, Correlative Burdens of Persuasion, and the Logical Structure of Adequate Proof ................................ 937 (a) The ordinary civil standard described and its relation to the presumption of nonliability explained ...................... 937 t © Copyright 1985, University of Pittsburgh Law Review. * Professor of Law, University of Louisville.

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