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46 U. Pitt. L. Rev. 925 (1984-1985)
Of Probativity and Probability: Statistics, Scientific Evidence, and the Calculus of Chance at Trial

handle is hein.journals/upitt46 and id is 949 raw text is: OF PROBATIVITY AND PROBABILITY:
STATISTICS, SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE,
AND THE CALCULUS OF CHANCE
AT TRIALt
Leonard R. Jaffee*
Professor Jaffee vigorously challenges the role of statistical proof in litigationL In a style
that a lawyer-reader can understand, he examines the limitations and usefulness ofprobabil-
istic proof vis-d-vis the concepts of relevance, corroboration and sufficiency. He treats in depth
the question of proof of paternity by HLA blood testing-a problem that demonstrates the
dangers in this field. Finally, he offers practical suggestions for the handling of probabilistic
proofs and related evidence. Professor Jaffee concludes that probability is irrelevant as proof
of an actualistic element of a claim or affirmative defense and that no calculus of probability
is competent to measure the sufficiency or weight of litigational evidence
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I.  INTRODUCTION ........................................ 927
II.  THE GAME-ITS ORGANIZATION, RULES, NORMS, AND
PRINCIPLES, AND THE ROLE OF PROBABILITY .......... 930
A.   Materiality, Relevance, Sufficiency, and the Stages of
Trial and Examination ............................. 930
1. The Importance of Accounting for the Rules
and Organization of the Game ................. 930
2. The Stages of Trial and Examination, their
Functions, and the Value of their Organization.. 931
B.   Sufficiency and Probability-The Appropriate
Relationship  .......................................     934
1. The Problem's Basic Contours .................. 934
2. The Legal Measures of Sufficiency of Proofs:
Presumptions, Correlative Burdens of
Persuasion, and the Logical Structure of
Adequate Proof ................................ 937
(a) The ordinary civil standard described and
its relation to the presumption of
nonliability explained ...................... 937
t © Copyright 1985, University of Pittsburgh Law Review.
* Professor of Law, University of Louisville.

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