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60 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2016)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr60 and id is 1 raw text is: 





Article


                                                          Journal of Conflict Resolution
                                                               2016, Vol. 60(l) 3-31
                                                               KitThe Author(s) 2014
Revisiting          Econom          ic                       Reprints and permission:
                                                     sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav
Shocks and             Coups                           DOI: 10.,,77/002200273520531
                                                                   jcr.sagepub.comn

Nam Kyu Kim'                                                           SAGE





Abstract
This article revisits the oft-cited relationship between economic shocks and coups.
According to conventional wisdom, economic recessions trigger coups. However,
existing empirical studies have not consistently produced supporting evidence for
that relationship. This article claims that this is partly because existing studies have
not differentiated transitory from permanent shocks to the economy. Two different
economic shocks could have different effects on coups. Moreover, existing studies
have not sufficiently addressed measurement error in gross domestic product
(GDP) data. To overcome these problems, I use exogenous rainfall and temperature
variation to instrument for economic growth. Instrumental estimates demonstrate,
consistently across four different GDP per capita growth measures, that a decrease
in GDP per capita growth rates, induced by short-run weather shocks, significantly
increases the probability of a coup attempt. Conversely, noninstrumental variable
estimates vary according to different GDP measures, and are close to zero,
consistent with previous findings.


Keywords
coups, transitory economic shocks, permanent economic shocks


This article revisits the oft-cited relationship between economic shocks and coup
attempts. Most scholars agree that economic downturns make a country more prone
to coups (e.g., Johnson et al. 1984; Fossum 1967; Galetovic and Sanhueza 2000;


iDepartment of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, USA

Corresponding Author:
Nam Kyu Kim, Department of Political Science, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 511 Oldfather Hall,
Lincoln, NE 68588, USA.
Email: namkyu@unl.edu

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