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53 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (2009)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr53 and id is 1 raw text is: 





                                                                             Voum 5 Nmber 1
                                                                          Februaryj 2009) 3-29
                                                                      I 2009) Sager Publicatlious
Democracy              under the         Gun                        10.1177/002002708326745

Understanding Postconflict                                                        h1te a
Economic Recovery

Thomas Edward Flores
Center for Global  Affairs
New   York  University, New  York
Irfan  Nooruddin
Department   of Political Science
Ohio  State University, Columbus

   Increasingly, scholars studying civil conflicts believe that the pace of postconflict eco-
   nomic recovery is crucial to a return to peaceful politics. But why do some countries'
   economies recover more quickly than others'? The authors argue that the inability of
   politicians to commit credibly to postconflict peace inhibits investment and, hence,
   slows recovery. In turn, the ability of political actors to eschew further violence cred-
   ibly depends on postconflict political institutions. The authors test this framework
   with duration analysis of an original data set of economic recovery, with two key
   results. First, they find that postconflict democratization retards recovery. Second, out-
   right military victory sets the stage for a longer peace than negotiated settlements do.
   This research deepens the understanding of the bases of economic recovery and con-
   flict recidivism in postconflict countries and points to future research that can augment
   this knowledge further still.

   Keywords:  Democracy;  Democratization; Civil Conflict; Conflict Recurrence; Recovery




S   ince  World  War  II, domestic armed  conflict has eclipsed interstate conflict as
    the most  deadly form  of political violence. By one count, civil conflicts killed
nearly 20 million  people since 1945  (World  Bank  2006).  As if this loss of human
life were not sufficiently tragic, civil conflict inflicts irreparable harm to the lives
of those  left behind, partly  by impoverishing   them.   Sadly,  civil conflict also
inhibits financiers from  investing in potentially lucrative and  socially beneficial


Authors' Note: For comments and suggestions, we thank Todd Allee, Carew Boulding, Janet Box-
Steffensmeier, Bill Clark, Michael Cohen, Sarah Croco, David Cunningham, Michael Findley, Susan
Hyde, Seonjou Kang, Douglas Lemke, Roy Licklider, Andrew Mack, Porter McConnell, Jordan Miller,
Jim Morrow, Patrick Regan, Elizabeth Saunders, Heidi Sherman, Joel Simmons, and Tze Kwang Teo.
Scott Gates and Kristian Gleditsch helped us gain access to various data sets at PRIO, and we thank
Andrew Mack  and Joakim Kreutz for sharing the Conflict Termination data set with us. Quintin
Beazer, Michael Cohen, and Scott Powell provided research assistance. Replication materials are
available alongside the electronic version of this article at: http://jcr.sagepub.com/.


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