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37 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1993)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr37 and id is 1 raw text is: 










Reciprocating Influence Strategies

in   Interstate Crisis Bargaining



RUSSELL J. LENG
Middleburv College




   The findings of a quantitative analysis of the effectiveness of reciprocating influence
strategies in militarized interstate crises (MICs) suggest that the success of reciprocating
strategies in MICs is related to (1) withholding cooperative initiatives until after the reciprocating
party has demonstrated its resolve, (2) the use of carrot-and-stick influence attempts and
responses combining firmness with flexibility, and (3) overcoming ambiguity through overt
communication of intentions. Reciprocating influence strategies are most likely to be employed
by democratic states either defending the status quo or following a change in the status quo in
their favor through a fait accompli. When reciprocating strategies are employed against different
types of influence strategies, the outcomes are consistent with the intersection of the decision
rules of the influence strategies employed by the two sides.




Reciprocity serves as the primary norm for interaction in systems of self-
help ranging  from  primitive communities to   the interstate system  (Masters
1969;  Gouldner   1960).  In the  interstate system, the presumed sovereign
equality of member states   makes   reciprocity the foundation  of the practice
of diplomacy.  Evidence  of the prevalence of reciprocating, or tit-for-tat (TFT)
behavior,  in the modern  state system has appeared  in a number  of studies of
interstate relations generally (Gamson and Modigliani 1971; Ward 1982;
Goldstein  and  Freeman 1990; Patchen 1987) and of crisis bargaining in
particular (Leng  and Goodsell   1974; Snyder  and  Diesing  1977). Moreover,
recent  studies by  the author  have  indicated  that reciprocating  influence
strategies have produced  a high rate of success in crisis bargaining (see Leng
and  Wheeler  1979;  Leng  forthcoming,  chap. 7).

   AUTHOR'S   NOTE:  This article is adapted from a chapter in Interstate Crisis Behavior
1816-1980: Realism vs. Reciprocity (Cambridge University Press, forthcoming). The article has
benefited from the helpful comments of Patrick James, Gerald Schneider, J. David Singer,
Richard Stoll, and two anonymous reviewers,

JOURNAL  OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 37 No. 1, March 1993 3-41
C 1993 Sage Publications, Inc.
                                                                              3


from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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