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25 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1981)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr25 and id is 1 raw text is: 






The Conflict Process


A  FORMAL MODEL



MARK IRVING LICHBACH
Department  of Political Science
University of Illinois at Chicago Circle

TED ROBERT GURR
Department  of Political Science
Northwestern University



   This article proposes and tests a self-generative theory of conflict processes within
nations. We dissect the conflict breeds conflict truism into three hypotheses: (1) the
present extent of conflict simultaneously determines its intensity, while the present inten-
sity of conflict determines its future extent; (2) the present extent of protest determines the
present extent of rebellion and vice versa; and (3) the extent and intensity of both protest
and rebellion persist over time. Our principal findings are: (1) man-days of protest is a
weak positive and linear function of simultaneous man-days of rebellion and lagged man-
days of protest; (2) deaths from protest is a strong curvilinear function of simultaneous
man-days  of protest; (3) man-days of rebellion is a weak positive and linear function of
simultaneous man-days of protest and lagged man-days of rebellion, and a U-shaped
function of lagged deaths from rebellion; (4) deaths from rebellion is a strong exponential
function of present man-days of rebellion, and a linear and positive function of lagged
deaths from protest and from rebellion. We conclude that the self-generative model pro-
vides a less-than-sufficient explanation of variations in internal conflict.




  The   purpose   of this article is to specify and test with cross-national
data  the  common-sense argument that conflict breeds conflict. The
underlying assumptions are that societies and social groups have
characteristic  patterns  of  conflict behavior   which   exist  in complex


   AUTHORS' NOTE: This study is   part of a larger project supported by grants from
the National Science Foundation to the second author. Earlier versions of this paper
were read by the first author to the International Studies Association, 1979 Annual
Meeting, Toronto, and to the Berlin Conference on Large-Scale Global Modelling, the
Science Center Berlin, July 1980. We thank Raymond Duvall and Manus Midlarsky for
their critical comments on the first paper.


JOURNAL   OF CONFLICT  RESOLUTION,   Vol. 25 No. 1, March 1981 3-29
@  1981 Sage Publications, Inc.
                                                                            3

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