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19 J. Conflict Resol. 3 (1975)

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr19 and id is 1 raw text is: 







From Bosnia to Sarajevo


A  COMPARATIVE DISCUSSION
OF   INTERSTATE CRISES



ALAN   NED   SABROSKY
Foreign Policy Research Institute,
Philadelphia



   This paper undertakes a comparative case study of the relationship between the
onset of interstate crises and the incidence of war. Findings obtained from several
different studies are integrated and extended into an analysis of changes in the
major-power subsystem between  the Bosnian Crisis of 1908-1909 (which was
resolved without war) and the Sarajevo Crisis of 1914 (which escalated into the First
World War). The  outcomes of these crises are examined in the context of the
changing pattern of major-power alliances, the distribution and the shift in
distribution of major-power capabilities, and the pre-1914 arms race. The author
finds a transformation in the major-power subsystem between 1905-1910 which
significantly altered the existing European balance of power in favor of the Triple
Entente. During the Sarajevo Crisis, the behavior of the decision makers on both sides
reflected that transformation. The implications of these findings for conflict theory
are summarized.




One of the more compelling questions raised in the study of
international conflict involves the relationship between the onset of crises
and  the incidence of war. That is, why  do some  crises end in war, while
others do  not?  Social scientists of all methodological persuasions have
approached   this problem  from   a variety of  theoretical and empirical
perspectives. The present paper proposes to bring together several aspects
of these  studies and to develop them  further. In it, findings on several
structural and behavioral variables will be integrated into a comparative
discussion of the outcomes   of the two  major  crises preceding the First


   AUTHOR'S   NOTE:   Thanks are in order to J. David Singer, Karl W. Deutsch,
Catherine M. Kelleher, Stuart A. Bremer, and Bruce Bueno de Mesquita for their
helpful comments. Final responsibility, of course, is mine.
JOURNAL   OF  CONFLICT  RESOLUTION,   Vol. 19 No. 1, March 1975
@1975  Sage Publications, Inc.

                                                                       131

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