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130 Int'l Lab. Rev. 459 (1991)
From Manpower Planning to Labour Market Analysis

handle is hein.journals/intlr130 and id is 475 raw text is: International Labour Review, Vol. 130, 1991, No. 4 From manpower planning to labour market analysis George PSACHAROPOULOS I. Introduction he art of manpower planning is certainly in disarray. After decades of manpower forecasting practice, it has come under repeated and sustained criticism (see Ahamad and Blaug, 1973; Psacharopoulos, 1984; Youdi and Hinchliffe, 1985; World Bank, 1991). Those still practising the art might be rightly confused as to the mandate, methodology and overall usefulness of what they are doing. In this paper I review how conventional wisdom is changing fast in this field, and I suggest a shift from traditional, old-fashioned, blind-alley activities in the area of manpower planning towards a set of more promising goals in labour market analysis. II. Do's and don'ts in labour market analysis Table 1 presents a summary of the points I want to make in this paper. A line by line explanation follows. From planning to policy analysis Planning is becoming a word to avoid. The optimism implicit in the central planning of the post-Second World War years has collapsed, as is evident from the contrasting economic performance of countries that attempted to plan (ranging from India to the Soviet Union) and of laissez- faire economies such as those of the United States and Hong Kong. The same applies to manpower planning. In spite of the efforts of many countries to plan their manpower needs for the future, unemployment among school- leavers has become worse over the years. Indeed, such unemployment might have been lower if no attempt at manpower forecasting had ever been made. * World Bank. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the ILO Workshop on Approaches to Manpower Analysis and Planning, Geneva, 3-4 October 1991. The views expressed are those of the author and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copyright © International Labour Organization 1991

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