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39 Fletcher F. World Aff. 1 (2015)

handle is hein.journals/forwa39 and id is 1 raw text is: THE FLETCHER FORUM of WORLD AFFAIRS THE FLETCHER SCHOOL, TUFTS UNIVERSITY WINTER 2015 VOL.39:1 $11.00 USA EDITOR'S NOTE 2014 was an eventful and in many ways difficult year for students of inter- national affairs. The world lurched from one crisis to another with devastating consequences. War contributed to the largest flow of forced displacement since World War II-over 50 million people. The rise of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) created a grim new reality for millions of Syrians and Iraqis, while authori- tarian regimes across the Middle East continued to reverse the gains of the Arab Spring for many. Vladimir Putin's annexation of Crimea cast a long, haunting shadow over Ukraine and the rest of Europe. Clashes between China and its neighbors in the East and South China Seas raised fears of regional war, and brought into question America's willingness to exercise its military capability in the region. Ebola ravaged Western Africa and sparked fears of a global pandemic. The first part of this Winter 2015 issue reviews the events that defined 2014, and examines the complex set of decisions required to manage these crises. The second part of this issue takes on an entirely different time horizon. These remaining articles seek to answer how the crises of today will define tomorrow's international order. In the opening piece of this issue's first section, JUSTUS REID WEINER investigates the recent prisoner exchange for U.S. Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl and presents a number of confounding questions for U.S. diplomats: Do we negotiate with terrorists? If so, what price do we place on human lives? And what can we learn from the experiences of our allies, who have successfully negotiated the release of a number of their citizens taken hostage by ISIS in Syria? With the overall success of the Arab Spring still very much in doubt, MARK GREEN and HALLAM FERGUSON look to settle a broader yet equally controversial question facing the Middle East today: is Islam compat- ible with democracy? Pointing to recent electoral successes in Indonesia, Tunisia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, the authors argue that Islam is actually experiencing a long-term expansion of democracy, despite the turmoil that dominates our news. Shifting focus to the Pacific, EIRIK TORSVOLL offers a blueprint for containing and deterring the brewing military conflict between China and the United States. Addressing one of the deadliest epidemics of our time, NAVEEN VOL. 39:1 WINTER 20 15

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