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3 Crim. Just. & Behavior 3 (1976)

handle is hein.journals/crmjusbhv3 and id is 1 raw text is: THE PREDICTION OF DANGEROUS BEHAVIOR EDWIN I. MEGARGEE Florida State University Error is inevitable whenever psychologists attempt to predict future behavior. This paper examines the steps involved and the factors to be considered in the prediction of behavior in general and dangerous behavior in particular. Errors can occur in identifying the relevant personality and situational variables to sample, assessing these variables, and determining their interaction. The effects of these errors are multiplied by the fact that violence is a low base-rate phenomenon. The consequences of errors in violence prediction are examined and the ethical problems and social policy implications discussed. A t no time has the prediction of dangerous behavior been of greater concern to mental health professionals and society at large. In addition to the natural concern over preventing violence directed at public figures and ordinary citizens, the problem of predicting dangerous behavior is a common bridge Author's Note: This paper is based on papers delivered at the Second Annual Florida Symposium on Dangerousness, Gainesville, Florida, March 14, 1975 and the Fourth International Seminar on Comparative Clinical Criminology, Santa Margherita Ligure, Italy, April 29, 1975. Preparation was supported in part by USPttS Grant No. MH 13202; NIMH: Center for Studies of Crime and Delinquency. All statements and opinions expressed are those of the author and should not be construed as representing official policies, opinions, or attitudes of' the Public Health Service. The author would like to thank Wally Kennedy and Jean Kling for their comments on an earlier draft as well as the suggestions for improvement by the anonymous reviewers, particularly Saleem Shah. CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, Vol. 3 No. 1, March 1976 0 1976 American Association of Correctional Psychologists

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