11 Crim. Just. & Behavior 3 (1984)

handle is hein.journals/crmjusbhv11 and id is 1 raw text is: 




THE CLINICAL AND

STATISTICAL PREDICTION

OF RECIDIVISM





J. STEPHEN WORMITH
COLIN S. GOLDSTONE
Regional Psychiatric Centre, Saskatoon,
and University of Saskatchewan



The purpose of this research series was to investigate characteristics of a previously
devised Recidivism Prediction Scheme with a regional sample of offenders and to
assess possible means of integrating clinical and actuarial data sets. Study I revealed
high interrater reliability coefficients, although agreement varied by items. Natives,
maximum security inmates, and property offenders received poor prognostic scores in
Studies 1 and 2. Study 2 provided validity data on the instrument and suggested how
clinical and statistically based decisions might be integrated. However, in Study 3, the
incorporation of clinical data into an actuarial scheme did little to improve the
predictive accuracy of both multiple regression and unit weight systems when they
were subjected to cross-validation.





T he prediction of criminal recidivism among cohorts of
      incarcerated offenders has a long and varied history. The
first crude attempts were pioneered by Hart (1923) and
Burgess (1928), who developed experience tables in which
recidivism rates were listed for various offender groups. Since
then, the development of computers and large data sets has led
to sophisticated prediction schemes based on large and


Authors' Note: The authors wish to thank the National Parole Board
(Prairie Region) and the staff of the Parole Board office for their
cooperation and assistance. These studies were supported in part by the


CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND BEHAVIOR, Vol. 11 No. 1, March 1984 3-34
 1984 American Association of Correctional Psychologists
                                                                  3


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