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19 Comp. Pol. Stud. 3 (1986-1987)

handle is hein.journals/compls19 and id is 1 raw text is: 




This article evaluates a formal theory of domestic political conflict using a forecasting
approach. The theory, a mobilization of discontent model, argues that the extent of
open political conflict within nations is a function of popular discontent, popular disposi-
tions toward conflict, and the balance of organizational strengt between challengers and
the regime. In order to examine the forecasting power of this argument, two competing
and less elaborate models of domestic political conflict are also proposed. One, a model
of the conflict process, forms linkages between the extent and intensity of conflict. The
other is a truly naive model, which represents only a persistence of conflit argument.
All three models are used to forecast conflict for 10 randomly selected nations in
1971-1975, and implications for the modelling of domestic political conflict are drawn.





                     FORECASTING INTERNAL

                                                   CONFLICT

                      A Competitive Evaluation of

                                        Empirical Theories



                                             TED   ROBERT GURR
                                   University  of Colorado, Boulder

                                     MARK IRVING LICHBACH
                                     University   of Illinois, Chicago





A common theme in criticisms of empirical theories of political
      conflict and revolution  is that they are postdictive, not predic-
tive. That is, they can offer plausible explanations  after the fact for
the  occurrence of episodes  of rioting or revolution, but they are not
used  to make   forecasts or  probability statements  about  the occur-


AUTHORS' NOTE: The research   reported here has been supported by grants from
the National Science Foundation and by institutional supportfrom Northwestern Univer-
sity to the first author. We would like to thank Raymond Duvall, Edward N. Muller,
Michael D. Wallace, and Michael D. Ward for their helpful criticisms of portions of
the study.

COMPARATIVE   POLITICAL STUDIES, Vol. 19 No. 1, April 1986 3-38
@ 1986 Sage Publications, Inc.
                                                                      3


from the SAGE Social Science Collections. All Rights Reserved.

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