35 Canadian J. Criminology 31 (1993)
Re-Analyses of J.P. Rushton's Crime Data

handle is hein.journals/cjccj35 and id is 35 raw text is: Re-analyses of J.P Rushton's crime data
Zack Z. Cernovsky (1)
Department of Psychology
University of Western Ontario
London, Ontario
and
Larry C. Litman
Forensic Services
St. Thomas Psychiatric Hospital
St. Thomas, Ontario
Rkeemment, Rushton affirmait qu 'il existe des diff~rences importantes dans les taux de
criminalitg entre les groupes raciaux. Ses mthodes d'analyse statistique (l'analyse de
variance), cependant, ne fait pas ressortir la grandeur de ces difflrences. Les auteurs
ont rO-analys  les donnes de Rushton et dmontrent qu 'il n 'y a pas de rapports fermes
entre les facteurs (le coifficient de corr~lation moyen itait .24, ce qui laisse supposer
que moins de 6% de la variance est commune). Les tendances gtaientfaibles et
contradictoires (70.8% des co~fficients sont oufaibles ou sans importance). Les
donnges de Rushton semblent indiquer qu 'en se basant sur le facteur racial comme
prdicteur de criminalitM il en r~sulterait un taux tr~s  lev  (99.9%o) defaux-positifs.
Rushton recently reported significant racial differences in crime rates. His statistical
method (the analysis of variance), however, does not assess the size of these
significant trends. A re-analysis of his data shows the absence of strong relationships
(the average correlation coefficient was .24, suggesting that less than 6% of the variance
is shared). The trends were mostly weak and inconsistent (70.8% of the underlying
coefficients are classified as low or nonsignificant). Rushton's own data suggest that
relying on race as a predictor of crime in individual cases would result in an absurdly
high rate (99.90o) offalse positives.
Introduction
In a recent article in this Journal, Rushton (1990) presented his statistical
analyses to document his view that crime frequencies follow his model of racial
differences in behaviour. Rushton reports that he collected his data (see Table
1) from international criminal police archives, calculated a one-way analysis of
variance (ANOVA), and concluded that the races differ significantly in crime
production.
Canadian Journal of Criminology                31 to 36
Revue canadienne de criminologie    January/janvier 1993

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