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                                                                                                    March 16, 2018

Flashpoints in Syria and Iraq Create Challenges for U.S. Policy


Interconnected active and latent armed conflicts in Syria
and Iraq involving a range of domestic groups and
international actors could further destabilize the region and
create evolving policy challenges for U.S. policymakers.
Related instability gives Iran opportunities to expand its
influence and could lead to resurgence of the Islamic State
(IS, also known as ISIS/ISIL), which has lost control over
nearly all of the territory it once occupied. Several incidents
in 2018 have focused attention on this complex, dynamic
environment, complicating U.S. priorities and policies.

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Since 2012, Israel reportedly has conducted dozens of
airstrikes in Syria. Initially, these focused mainly on
preventing the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah in
Lebanon. However, because Iran-backed forces and Russia
have strengthened the Syrian regime's position
considerably since late 2015, Iran's posture toward Israel
from Syria appears to have grown more assertive.
Consequently, Israeli strikes in the past two years have also
focused on preventing Iran from establishing bases or
weapons factories in Syria, or opening new terror fronts
along Israel's northern border. A February 2018 cross-
border incident highlighted the possibility that Israel's
limited strikes against Iran-backed forces to enforce its
redlines could expand into wider conflict, particularly in
cases of miscalculation by one or both sides.
The reported exchange of fire, apparently sparked by the
entry of an Iranian drone into Israeli airspace, caused Israel
to down the drone and retaliate against its Iranian operators
in central Syria. When a Syrian air defense battery shot
down an Israeli F-16 in Israeli airspace (the first loss of an
Israeli jet in combat since 1982), Israel responded by
destroying a number of Syrian air defense units and Iranian
facilities in Syria. Reports indicate that Israel's reprisal may
have been more extensive, if not for a Russian demand to
limit its scope. Advanced Russian air defenses deployed in
Syria have the potential to challenge Israeli air superiority.
Actions since February seem to indicate that neither Israel
nor Iran and its allies seek a broader military confrontation
at present, but miscalculation remains a risk.
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The U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have
captured much of northeastern Syria north of the Euphrates
River from the Islamic State. Forces aligned with the
government of Syrian President Bashar al Asad, including
from Russia and Iran, have taken much of the territory
south of the river, leading to a situation in which the two
sides share a fluid de facto line of control (or deconfliction
line) that mostly corresponds to the river. Clashes between
the two sides fuel risks of a more general escalation. Such
clashes include a February 2018 incident near Deir ez Zor
that reportedly involved a large column of Asad-linked
forces advancing on SDF positions outside the city near


lucrative oil fields. U.S. force protection strikes in response
reportedly killed dozens of fighters, including some Russian
nationals. Russian officials stated that no Russian armed
forces personnel were killed, and suggested that the Asad-
linked forces did not coordinate their attack with Moscow.
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Turkey's military operations in Syria began with an
offensive against IS -held territory in August 2016, and
expanded to the Kurdish-held territory of Afrin in January
2018. Afrin is administered by the People's Protection
Units (Kurdish acronym YPG), a group that Turkey views
as a direct extension of the PKK (a U.S.-designated Foreign
Terrorist Organization that has waged a decades-long
insurgency against Turkey). Asad-linked militias may be
indirectly aiding the YPG in Afrin, but giving the regime a
foothold there could undermine the Kurdish goal of
autonomy.
Outside of Afrin, the United States has partnered with the
YPG whose commanders and fighters have been core
elements of SDF forces against the Islamic State. Turkish
officials have stated their intention to extend military
operations eastward from Afrin, and the town of Manbij has
emerged as a focal point of U.S.-Turkish tensions. (Turkish
officials argue that U.S. promises made in 2016 that YPG
elements would withdraw from Manbij have not been
fulfilled.) U.S. forces have deployed in and around Manbij
since at least March 2017. A series of high-level U.S.-
Turkey meetings that took place in February 2018
established a mechanism for resolving tensions. Doing so
may prove difficult given apparent gaps between U.S. and
Turkish priorities in Syria.
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Iraqi leaders declared victory against the Islamic State in
December 2017 but face ongoing IS insurgent attacks.
Tensions also persist between the national government and
the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) the United
States' principal security partners.
In September 2017, the KRG held a referendum on
independence, in spite of opposition from the U.S. and Iraqi
governments and Iraq's neighbors. Kurds overwhelmingly
backed independence, but in October 2017 the Iraqi
government returned security forces, including volunteer
Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), to long-disputed areas
between the constitutionally recognized Kurdistan region
and the rest of Iraq. This included areas secured by Kurdish
forces after the 2014 IS offensive, such as oil-rich Kirkuk.
PMF units are set to be incorporated into Iraq's military
chain of command, but the presence of some Iran-supported
Shia PMF units may exacerbate inter-communal tensions.
National elections in Iraq planned for May could reshape
the balance of political forces, with implications for
Baghdad-KRG relations, KRG leadership, stabilization, and
the continued deployment of U.S. military personnel.


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