How CBO Would Analyze the Economic Effects of Proposals to Make Major Changes in Immigration Policy 1 (May 2, 2013)

handle is hein.congrec/cbo11049 and id is 1 raw text is: CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE                            Douglas W. Elmendorf, Director
U.S. Congress
Washington, DC 20515
May 2, 2013
Honorable Paul Ryan
Chairman
Committee on the Budget
U.S. House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20515
Dear Mr. Chairman:
As you requested, this letter provides information about how the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO) would analyze the economic effects of proposals to make
major changes in immigration policy. The details of such an analysis would
depend importantly on the specific provisions of any proposed legislation.
Further, because immigration legislation can be quite complicated, CBO expects
that preparing such an analysis would be time-consuming. CBO has not yet
completed an analysis of any immigration legislation currently being considered
by the Congress.
Previous estimates prepared by CBO illustrate the agency's general
methodological approach to such analysis. Those estimates also provide an idea of
the potential magnitude of the economic effects of large-scale changes to
immigration policy as well as the resulting budgetary impact of such changes. For
example, in 2006, CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT)
analyzed the potential budgetary and economic effects of S. 2611, the
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2006, as introduced on April 7 of that
year.' CBO and JCT estimated that the bill would increase federal revenues by
$66 billion and direct spending by $54 billion over the 2007-2016 period; if the
amounts of discretionary spending authorized in the bill had been appropriated, it
would have boosted outlays by an additional $25 billion between 2007 and 2011.2
' Congressional Budget Office, cost estimate for S. 2611, Comprehensive Immigration Reform
Act of 2006, and Additional Information on the Estimated Budgetary and Economic Effects of
S. 2611 (attachments to a letter to the Honorable Charles B. Grassley, May 16, 2006),
wwwcbogovsits/efalt/ile/cbfies/tpdes/2xxdo720/s211;df(201 KB).
2CBO's estimates of the broader macroeconomic effects of the legislation appear later in this
document and are given for the periods 2007 to 2011 and 2012 to 2016. For purposes of
comparison, the budgetary effects over those periods that were shown in CBO's cost estimate are
as follows: an increase in revenues of $13 billion between 2007 and 2011 and $53 billion between

www.cbo.gov

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