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98 Foreign Aff. 40 (2019)
The Age of Uneasy Peace: Chinese Power in a Divided World

handle is hein.journals/fora98 and id is 42 raw text is: The Age of Uneasy Peace Chinese Power in a Divided World Yan Xuetong In early October 2018, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence delivered a searing speech at a Washington think tank, enumerating a long list of reproaches against China. From territorial disputes in the South China Sea to alleged Chinese meddling in U.S. elections, Pence accused Beijing of breaking international norms and acting against American interests. The tone was unusually blunt-blunt enough for some to interpret it as a harbinger of a new Cold War between China and the United States. Such historical analogies are as popular as they are misleading, but the comparison contains a kernel of truth: the post-Cold War interregnum of U.S. hegemony is over, and bipolarity is set to return, with China playing the role of the junior superpower. The transition will be a tumultuous, perhaps even violent, affair, as China's rise sets the country on a collision course with the United States over a number of clashing interests. But as Washington slowly retreats from some of its diplomatic and military engage- ments abroad, Beijing has no clear plan for filling this leadership vacuum and shaping new international norms from the ground up. YAN XUETONG is Distinguished Professor and Dean of the Institute of International Relations at Tsinghua University. What kind of world order will this bring? Contrary to what more alarmist voices have suggested, a bipolar U.S.- Chinese world will not be a world on the brink of apocalyptic war. This is in large part because China's ambitions for the coming years are much narrower than many in the Western foreign policy establishment tend to assume. Rather than unseating the United States as the world's premier superpower, Chinese foreign policy in the coming decade will largely focus on maintaining the condi- tions necessary for the country's contin- ued economic growth-a focus that will likely push leaders in Beijing to steer clear of open confrontation with the United States or its primary allies. Instead, the coming bipolarity will be an era of uneasy peace between the two superpowers. Both sides will build up their militaries but remain careful to manage tensions before they boil over into outright conflict. And rather than vie for global supremacy through opposing alliances, Beijing and Washington will largely carry out their competition in the economic and techno- logical realms. At the same time, U.S.- Chinese bipolarity will likely spell the end of sustained multilateralism outside strictly economic realms, as the combi- nation of nationalist populism in the West and China's commitment to national sovereignty will leave little space for the kind of political integration and norm setting that was once the hallmark of liberal internationalism. WHAT CHINA WANTS China's growing influence on the world stage has as much to do with the United States' abdication of its global leadership under President Donald Trump as with China's own economic rise. In material 40 FOREIGN AFFAIRS

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