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4 Rev. Eur. Stud. 1 (2012)
Disentangling the Climate-Conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways

handle is hein.journals/rveurost4 and id is 753 raw text is: Review of European Studies; Vol. 4, No. 5; 2012 ISSN 1918-7173 E-ISSN 1918-7181 Published by Canadian Center of Science and Education Disentangling the Climate-conflict Nexus: Empirical and Theoretical Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Pathways Jllrgen Scheffran1, Michael Brzoska2, Jasmin Kominek1'3, P. Michael Link 1,4 & Janpeter Schilling1' 5 1 Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography and KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 2 Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy and KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 3 Institute of Sociology, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 4 Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany 5 Department of Geography, Colgate University, Hamilton, NY, USA Correspondence: Jfirgen Scheffran, Research Group Climate Change and Security, Institute of Geography and KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 7 #2015, D-20144 Hamburg, Germany. Tel: 49-40-42838-7722. E-mail: juergen.scheffran@zmaw.de Received: July 30, 2012 Accepted: September 8, 2012 Online Published: September 28, 2012 doi: 10.5539/res.v4n5p 1 URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/res.v4n5p1 Research for this study was funded in part by the German Science Foundation (DFG) through the Cluster of Excellence CliSAP (EXCi 77). Abstract Recent research has provided new insights into the relationship between climate change and violent conflict. In this review we compare the results, methodologies, and data applied in the peer-reviewed literature to recap the current state of the debate. While long-term historical studies suggest a coincidence between climate variability and armed conflict, empirical findings are less conclusive for recent periods. Disentangling the climate-conflict nexus, we discuss causal pathways such as precipitation changes, freshwater scarcity, food insecurity, weather extremes, and environmental migration. A geographic differentiation indicates that countries with low human development are particularly vulnerable to the double exposure of natural disasters and armed conflict. Thus, effective institutional frameworks and governance mechanisms are important to prevent climate-induced conflicts and to strengthen cooperation. Applying an integrative framework connecting climate change, natural resources, human security, and societal stability, we pinpoint future research needs. Keywords: climate change, human security, integrative framework, societal stability, violent conflict, vulnerability 1. Introduction While recent research has provided new insights into the relationship between climate change and violent conflict (Gleditsch, 2012, Scheffran et al., 2012a) there is no consensus yet in the literature about its nature and extent. Those who claim a strong causal connection are facing serious doubts by scholars who find no or only weak empirical evidence for such claims. In this literature review we summarize the current state of the debate by addressing the following research questions: Do peer-reviewed studies find significant linkages between climate change and violent conflict? Which factors are found to be of particular importance? What methodologies and data are used in the studies? What conclusions can be drawn from the analysis of the studies? What future paths of research on the linkages between climate change and violent conflict appear to be particularly promising? While long-term historical studies suggest a coincidence between climate variability and armed conflict, empirical findings are less conclusive for recent periods. Understanding the different views provides a foundation for the prediction of future impacts on violent conflict. However, it is argued here that more

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