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14 J. Democracy 131 (2003)
Nigeria: Elections in a Fragile Regime

handle is hein.journals/jnlodmcy14 and id is 504 raw text is: 

















         NIGERIA: ELECTIONS IN

              A   FRAGILE REGIME

                         Peter M.  Lewis






Peter M. Lewis  is associate professor in the School of International
Service at American University in Washington, D.C. He has written ex-
tensively on democracy  and  economic  reform  in Africa, including
problems of democratization in Nigeria.


Nigeria's  recently concluded elections may mark a watershed in the
troubled political history of Africa's largest country. Since independence
in 1960, no civilian government has successfully completed the passage
from  one administration to another. Twice previously-in 1965  and
1983-elections  under the control of the nation's political class degen-
erated into violence and fraud, forfeiting democratic legitimacy and giving
way  to military intervention. Nigerians therefore approached the 2003
elections, the first to be run by civilians since the transition from mili-
tary rule four years earlier, with a mixture of hope and trepidation. The
polling itself was embroiled in disarray, misconduct, and confrontation,
rousing worrisome  echoes of earlier failures. And yet the country ap-
pears to have weathered its turbulent season, yielding a second term for
President Olusegun Obasanjo, and perhaps a new lease on life for Nige-
rian democracy. This crisis-ridden regime still faces major hurdles to
consolidation amid a setting made volatile by elite contention, social
polarization, institutional dysfunction, and economic malaise.
   The survival of electoral rule is crucial to Nigeria's democratic pros-
pects: Without a stable constitutional regime in place, democratic reform
will go nowhere. Beyond the mere continuation of electoral cycles and
civilian government, however, are vital questions about the regime's
character and performance. The much anticipated democracy dividend,
whether  construed as improvements in governance, stability, or eco-
nomic welfare, has not materialized. The profound deficits of governance
that trouble Nigeria's Fourth Republic stem from feeble, unsteady in-
stitutions; squabbling among political leaders and factions; and an elite
that most Nigerians see as distant, selfish, and lacking in integrity.' The


Journal of Democracy Volume 14, Number 3 July 2003

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