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59 J. Conflict Resol. 1101 (2015)
Geography, Outcome, and Casualties: A Unified Model of Insurgency

handle is hein.journals/jcfltr59 and id is 1081 raw text is: Article journal of Conflict Resolution 2015, Vol. 59(6) 1101-1128 @ The Author(s) 2014 Geography, O utcom e, Reprints and permission: sagepub.com/journalsPermissions.nav and Casualties: DOI: 10. 1177/00220027 13520534 jcr.sagepub.comn A Unified Model OSAGE of Insurgency Sebastian Schutte' Abstract This study introduces a theoretical model of how insurgency develops as a function of reactive mobilization. The theory extends a classic distance-decay model by incor- porating Kalyvas' typology of violence. It implies that geographic conditions crucially determine the accuracy of applied violence and thereby its public perception, which in turn determines the actors' ability to mobilize. As a first test of these effects, I propose a new geographic indicator that expresses the spatial accessibility of a country's population for both central governments and peripheral insurgent move- ments. Two empirical implications of the theory are tested with a large-N data set on outcomes and casualties in insurgencies. The new indicator is significantly associated with both military outcomes and the number of casualties in insurgencies since I970 and strengthens statistical predictions. Keywords insurgency, civil war, GIS, violence The bloody stalemate in Afghanistan, a highly volatile security situation in Iraq, and the different fates of the uprisings of the Arab Spring remind us that civil war out- comes and severities are difficult to predict. Most civil conflicts in the post-World War II era share a common type of warfare: insurgency (Fall 1965; Fearon and 'Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland Corresponding Author: Sebastian Schutte, Center for Comparative and International Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland. Email: schuttes@ethz.ch

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