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4 Crime & Delinquency 258 (1958)
Predicting the Adjustment of Federal Probationers

handle is hein.journals/cadq4 and id is 243 raw text is: Predicting the Adjustment of Federal Probationers DANIEL GLASER Associate Professor of Sociology, University of Illinois* RICHARD F. HANGREN Social Work Student, University of Illinois P REDICTIONS of human behav- ior enter into the decision to grant probation, and they are crucial in approving a probationer's plans and in determining supervision policies. However, studies have repeatedly shown that impressionistic predictions of human behavior, even by a highly qualified staff, are erroneous more frequently than are predictions based on statistical analysis. That is why statistical prediction methods are pre- ferred, whenever practicable, in insur- ance and in other businesses which evaluate errors of behavior prediction in dollars and cents. This article is a summary of an exploratory investigation of the poten- tialities of statistical research in im- proving predictions of the adjustment of federal probationers. * This article, written by Prof. Glaser, is based on an analysis of data collected by Mr. Hangren for his 1955 M.A. thesis at the University of Illinois, entitled An Explora- tion of the Possibility of Predicting the Behavior of Federal Probationers. The au- thors wish to express their gratitude to Ben S. Meeker, Chief Probation Officer, and other officials of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, for their invaluable assistance and counsel in collect- ing the data presented here. See the survey of such studies in Paul E. Meehl, Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction, Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, 1954. Also: Daniel Glaser, The Efficacy of Alternative Approaches to Parole Prediction, American Sociological Review, June, 1955, pp. 283-287. Initial Procedures As a sample for this study, 190 cases were selected by taking every second male receiving a term of one year or more of probation during 1947 and 1948 in the U. S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois. Each case was classified by various types of background data available before probation was granted. Most of the categories of information col- lected had shown predictive utility in earlier criminological studies. The 190 cases were then rated by adjustment on probation. First, all of those whose probation was revoked were classified as Unsuccessful. Sec- ondly, every case in which probation was completed by discharge was clas- sified on the basis of the supervisor's log, particularly the concluding evalu- ation. In this group, those whose adjustment was described by the officer as clearly unsatisfactory were also classified as Unsuccessful. The group consisted of individuals who had violated state or municipal laws and ordinances, but whose federal probation was terminated rather than formally revoked because the penalty for their new offense was comparable to or greater than the penalty which might have been imposed for their federal offense, or because of the short time left in their probation term. The Unsuccessful group consisted of 22 258

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