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88 J. Crim. L. & Criminology 1217 (1997-1998)
Declining Crime Rates: Insiders' Views of the New York City Story

handle is hein.journals/jclc88 and id is 1231 raw text is: 0091-4169/98/8804-1217 THE JOURNAL OF CRIMINAL LAW & CRIMINOLOGY Vol. 88, No. 4 Copyright © 1998 by Northsestern University, School of Law Prine in U..A DECLINING CRIME RATES: INSIDERS' VIEWS OF THE NEW YORK CITY STORY GEORGE L. KELLING AND WILLIAM J. BRATTON' I. INTRODUCTION Something dramatic happened in New York City in 1994: a lot of people stopped committing crimes, especially violent ones. The reduction in the number of persons committing murders, for example, while not unprecedented,' was extraor- dinary. Since 1994, a debate has raged about why this hap- pened. Putting our position up front, we believe the police played an important, even central, role in getting people to stop committing crime in New York City. Despite arguments to the contrary,' no evidence exists that the substantial drops in crime in New York City, especially the initial ones when one of the authors of this paper, William Bratton, was commissioner, were the result of economic change, changes in drug use patterns, or demographic changes. Arguably, New York City's economy, drug use patterns, and demography might be different now in 1998. Unemployment was at 10% the month Bratton took over the New York City Police Department (NYPD) (January 1994) and at 8.7% when he resigned (April 1996)-hardly a booming economy.' And remember as well, the initial reductions in crime were so steep that by August of 1995-three years ago, but only twenty months after Bratton took office-New York maga- • Professor, Rutgers University; Research Fellow, Harvard University; Senior Fellow, Manhattan Institute. .. President, Carco Group, Inc.; Former Commissioner, New York City Police De- partment. I SeeJeffrey Fagan et al., DecliningHomicide in New York City. a Tale of Two Trends, 88 J. CRIM. L. & CRIMINoLoGY 1277 (1998). ' See generally, Alfred Blumstein & Richard Rosenfeld, Explaining Recent Trends in U.S. Homicide Rates, 88J. CRIM. L. & CRIMINOLOGY 1175 (1998). 'NEWYORK CrlYPoLICE DEPARTMENT, NEWYORK CrY CRIME CONTROL INDICATORS & STRATEGYAssESSMENT 41 (1998). 1217

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