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22 SAIS Rev. Int'l Aff. 255 (2002)
Hydro-Peace in the Middle East: Why No Water Wars? A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin

handle is hein.journals/susrwoil22 and id is 504 raw text is: SAIS Review vol. XXII no. 2 (Summer-Fall 2002) Hydro-Peace in the Middle East: Why no Water Wars? A Case Study of the Jordan River Basin J.A. Allan The Middle East is very poorly endowed with freshwater: the region ran out of water resources to meet its strategic needs-for domestic and industrial use as well as for food production-in 1970. Despite depleted water resources and growing water demand pushed by population growth, international relations over water have, if anything, become less tense since 1970. The reason is that water has been available on the international market in the form of virtual water. Indeed, economies that can import grain avoid having to mobilize scarce freshwater from their own resource base to produce wheat themselves. By the year 2000, the Middle East and North Africa were importing fifty mil- lion tons ofgrain annually, satisfying the largest demand for water in the re- gion-food production. The remaining 10 percent of water demand for drink- ing, domestic, and industrial use may soon be met through low-cost desalinated seawater. The global political economy of water use and trade has had impor- tant impacts on the way water is perceived in the Middle East. But at the same time, the impact of the global system has been perverse in that the availability of virtual water has slowed the pace of reforms intended to improve water ef- ficiency. The Middle East is the most water-challenged region in the world, with little freshwater and negligible soil water.1 Water is therefore a key strategic natural resource, and realist theory, as J.A. Allan is based at King's College and the School of Oriental and African Studies at the University of London. He received his Ph.D. from the University of London in 1971, where he has been teaching since 1988. He researches and publishes on the water resources of the Middle East and North Africa as well as on global water and hydropolitics. His research group has pioneered the study of virtual water. He is currently researching water futures-integrating the sciences of global hydrology, international trade, and international politics. His most recent book is The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the Global Economy (London: I. B. Tauris, 2001). 255

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