About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

14 J. Am. Inst. Crim. L. & Criminology 405 (May 1923 to February 1924)
Predicting Parole Success

handle is hein.journals/jclc14 and id is 413 raw text is: PREDICTING PAROLE SUCCESS By HORNELL HART' That the percentage of violations of paroles among men paroled from the Massachusetts Reformatory could be reduced one-half through scientific utilization of data already being collected by the authorities of that institution, is the conclusion which should have been reached by analysis of statistical data presented by Professor Sam B. Warner in a recent study.2 This conclusion, however, is quite at variance with those found by Professor Warner. At the request of the Massachusetts Department of Correction, he made a very pains- taking and valuable analysis of all of the systemtic data available about 680 prisoners, of whom 300 had broken their paroles, 300 had completed their paroles successfully and 80 had served their sentences without being paro!ed. Among his conclusions are the following: Poor as the criteria now used by the Board are, the Board would not improve matters by considering any of the sixty-odd pieces of information placed at its disposal, which it now ignores, except the alienist's report. . No considerable improvement is possible without a complete change both in the methods of obtaining information for the Board and in the nature of the information obtained.3 The purpose of the present article is to show that both of these con- clusions are in error, and that the Board could greatly improve its parole results by proper utilization of the information already at its disposal. The reason for the discrepancy between Professor Warner's con- clusions and those of the present writer is that, while the former's study is a most admirable, careful and valuable piece of work up to the point where he draws his conclusions from his tables, his failure to apply accurate statistical tests to determine which of the factors involved showed significant contrasts, and which did not, resulted in his overlooking certain highly important differences between the men who violated their paroles and men who succeeded. The statistical method applicable to this purpose is technical and has not yet come into general use except among professional statisticians, but unfortu- 'Iowa Child Welfare Research Station. 2Warner, Sam B., Factors Determining Parole from the Massachusetts Re- formatory. Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, 14: 172-207, August, 1923. 30p. cit., p. 196.

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most