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16 EPA J. 41 (1990)
Lessons from the Ozone Hole

handle is hein.journals/epajrnl16 and id is 97 raw text is: Lessons from the Ozone Hole by Richard Elliot Benedick Negotiated in 1987, the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer set a precedent for preventive action on a global scale to protect th? environment. Q n September 16, 1987, a treaty was signed that was unique in the annals of international diplomacy. The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer mandated significant reductions in the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons. At the time of the treaty's negotiation, these compounds enjoyed rapidly growing use in a wide range of industries, involving billions of dollars The existence of gaps in scientific and economic knowledge should not become an excuse for postponing the start of negotiations. of investment worldwide. Scientists suspected, however, that CFCs might cause future damage to a remote gas-the stratospheric ozone layer-that shields life on Earth from potentially disastrous levels of ultraviolet radiation. Perhaps the most extraordinary aspect of the Montreal Protocol was that it imposed substantial short-term economic costs in order to protect human health and the environment against speculative future dangers-dangers which rested on scientific theories rather than on proven facts. Unlike environmental agreements of the past, it was not a response to harmful events, but rather preventive action on a global scale. The problem of Greenhouse warming, although admittedly more complex, shares some attributes of the threat to the ozone layer. The ozone negotiators confronted dangers that could affect (Ambassador Benedick, as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, was the chief U.S. negotiator for the Montreal Protocol. Currently, he is on assignment as Senior Fellow of The Conservation Foundation/World Wildlife Fund.) MARCH/APRIL 1990 every nation and all life on Earth, over periods far beyond the normal time horizons of politicians. At the time, however, these potential consequences could neither be measured nor predicted with any certitude. Moreover, entrenched industrial interests claimed that new regulations would cause immense economic dislocations. Technological solutions either were nonexistent or were considered unacceptable by most major governments. The scientific positions taken by some parties were influenced by commercial self-interest, and scientific uncertainty was used by some as an excuse for delaying hard decisions. Many political leaders were long prepared to accept potential future environmental risks rather than to impose the certain short-term costs entailed in limiting products seen as important for modern standards of living. Does all of this sound as familiar as recent headlines on the international debate over climate change? There were scoffers of the ozone-depletion hypothesis just as there are skeptics of the prospects for Greenhouse warming. Short-range political and economic concerns are formidable obstacles to international action based upon arcane theories and computer model projections. The Montreal Protocol was not an inevitability; knowledgeable observers had long believed it would be impossible to achieve. Climate change does pose some unique challenges to international cooperation. Because the impacts of Greenhouse warming are so uncertain and distant, there is a possibility of winners and losers among nations. In addition, efforts to limit the magnitude and rate of temperature rise, and to adapt to the effects of warming, will require perhaps costly changes in energy, industry, agriculture, development, and population policies, as well as in consumer lifestyles. Further, as energy is so essential to the development of such heavily populated, low-income countries as China and India, they will be reluctant to forego fossil fuels unless economical alternatives are available. Nevertheless, the international community's response to the ozone issue suggests several lessons for the

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