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48 Ecology L. Currents 24 (2021)
California's Ban on Climate-Informed Models for Wildlife Insurance Premiums

handle is hein.journals/ecolwcur48 and id is 24 raw text is: California's Ban on Climate-Informed Models for Wildfire Insurance Premiums Rex Frazier* Introduction ............................................................................................... 24 I. Overview of California Insurance Price-Setting..................................... 26 A. Looking Backward has Become Less Effective in Predicting the Future .................................................................................... 27 B. How Does the Long-Term Average Catastrophe Adjustment Fit into This Discussion?......................................................................... 31 II. A Better Alternative to the Current Catastrophe Adjustment Methodology 31 III. Issues to Consider Before Permitting Modeled Losses .......................... 35 A. Are Insurer Actuaries Competent to Understand These Models?.. 35 B. How Should Insurance Regulators Validate Probabilistic Models? 35 C onclusion ................................................................................................. 37 INTRODUCTION Popular news outlets have effectively covered how homeowners living in high fire risk areas find it increasingly difficult to obtain property insurance.1 However, there is very little public discussion of, and little scholarship2 on, how *DOI: https://doi.or2/10.15779/Z384X54H5B 1. Nicole Friedman, Californians in Fire-Prone Areas Find It Harder to Buy Insurance, WALL ST J., Aug. 20, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/californians-in-fire-prone-areas-find-it-harder-to-buy- insurance-1 1566338023; Nathan Rott, It's Becoming Increasingly Hard for California Homeowners to Get Insurance, NPR (Jan. 12, 2018), https://www.npr.org/2018/01/12/577713360/its-becoming- increasingly-hard-for-california-homeowners-to-get-insurance; Ry Rivard, In Risk-Prone Areas, Fire Insurance Is Getting Harder and Harder to Come By, VOICE OF SAN DIEGO, (June 14, 2019), httys://www.voiceofsandieao. ora/topics/new s/in-ri sk-prone-areas-fire-insurance-is-aettina-harder-and- harder-to-come-by/; Katherine Chiglinsky & Elaine Chen, Many Californians Being Left Without Homeowners Insurance Due to Wildfire Risk, INS. J. (Dec. 4, 2020), https://www.insuranceiournal.com/news/west/2020/12/04/592788.htm. 2. A very recent examination of insurance regulation and climate change can be found in KAREN CHAPPLE ET AL., U.C. BERKELEY CTR. FOR CMTY. INNOVATION, REBUILDING FOR A RESILIENT 24

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