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104 Int'l Lab. Rev. 387 (1971)
Income Expections, Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Africa

handle is hein.journals/intlr104 and id is 401 raw text is: Income Expectations, Rural-Urban Migration and Employment in Africa Michael P. TODARO I I N THE FEW SHORT YEARS since independence, the nations of tropical Africa have experienced an unprecedented increase in the size of their urban populations. From Abidjan to Brazzaville to Nairobi, recorded urban population growth rates of 7 to 10 per cent per annum are a common phenomenon (see table I). Part of this growth is due to the rather rapid rates of over-all population increase in Africa, rates typically around 3 per cent per annum.2 However, by far the most important contributing factor has been the massive increase in the number of migrants arriving from surrounding rural areas. Numerous factors, both economic and non-economic, underlie the decision of peasant farmers and educated youths to seek the better life in the rapidly growing urban centres. In this article I shall examine the relationship between migration, expected income differentials, and urban employment in tropical Africa. I shall begin by briefly presenting a theoretical model of rural-urban migration which places primary emphasis on the economic motivations for migration. This analytical framework, where appropriate, will then be used in the main body of the article, which is devoted to an examination and evaluation of alternative short- and long-run policies designed to curtail the massive influx of rural migrants and to alleviate the concomitant growing unemployment problem in urban Africa. I Assistant Director for Social Sciences, Rockefeller Foundation. The views and opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Rockefeller Foundation. 2 For a useful review of African demographic data, see R. K. Som: Some demographic indicators for Africa , in John C. Caldwell and Chukuka Okonjo (eds.): The population of tropical Africa (London, Longmans, Green & Co., 1968), pp. 187-189.

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