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94 Foreign Aff. 41 (2015)
Apartheid's Long Shadow: How Racial Divides Distort South Africa's Democracy

handle is hein.journals/fora94 and id is 321 raw text is: Apartheid's Long Shadow How Racial Divides Distort South Africa's Democracy James L. Gibson ast April, South Africa celebrated the 20th anniversary of its first democratic elections, which brought to power the African National Congress (ANC) and its leader, Nelson Mandela, who had led the antiapartheid movement for decades. Many had long believed that civil war was the only way that the apartheid state would fall, and South Africa's mostly peaceful transition from a racist authoritarian state to a multiracial democracy stands as one of the most surprising political develop- ments of the twentieth century. The shift has not been without its problems, but few would contest South Africa's credentials as a democracy-perhaps the most democratic state in Africa. Still, democracy is no guarantor of stability or prosperity. And for all its political progress, South Africa faces a daunting array of social and economic challenges, many rooted in inequalities that neither democratization nor eco- nomic growth has managed to reduce. Around 47 percent of South Africans live in poverty, a proportion that is JAMES L. GIBSON is Sidney W. Souers Professor of Government at Washington Univer- sity in St. Louis and a Fellow at the Centre for International and Comparative Politics and Professor Extraordinary in Political Science at Stellenbosch University, in South Africa. actually slightly higher than it was in 1994. The unemployment rate hovers around 25 percent. South Africa's Gini coefficient-a measure of economic inequality in which zero represents absolute equality and one represents absolute inequality-is 0.63, making it one of the most unequal countries in the world. And the country contin- ues to struggle with high levels of violent crime. Even in a more homogeneous coun- try without a very recent history of racial oppression, such factors would create significant pressure on demo- cratic governance. Heterogeneous countries such as South Africa face a tougher road in building a democratic state, since racial and ethnic diversity can make it harder to foster social cohe- sion. And South Africa is extremely heterogeneous: the country has 11 official languages and four major racial groups, each of which contains ethnic and linguistic subgroups. The future of South Africa's multiracial democracy depends heavily on minimiz- ing animosity and hostility among these groups. Lurking behind the country's pressing day-to-day problems is a basic question: Can South Africans of differ- ent races continue to get along? It's impossible to forecast a specific trajectory for South African race rela- tions with much certainty. It is, however, possible to get some sense of the present state of affairs and to speculate on the future direction of relations thanks to the South African Reconciliation Barometer, a unique and rigorous annual survey conducted by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation (IJR), a nongovern- mental organization based in Cape Town. By taking a close look at data from the March/April 2015 41 M

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