About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

45 Am. Crim. L. Rev. 1149 (2008)
Has Demand for Crime Increased - The Prevalence of Personal Media Devices and the Robbery Spike in 2005 and 2006

handle is hein.journals/amcrimlr45 and id is 1155 raw text is: ESSAY HAS DEMAND FOR CRIME INCREASED? THE PREVALENCE OF PERSONAL MEDIA DEVICES AND THE ROBBERY SPIKE IN 2005 AND 2006 John K. Roman & Aaron Chalfin* ABSTRACT Seminal work by Becker (1968), Erlich (1973, 1981), Vandaele (1978), Cook (1986) Cameron (1988), Van Dijk (1994) and Garoupa (1997) posits that the supply of criminal offending is a function offour factors: (1) the probability (risk) of capture, (2) the severity of the sanction if captured, (3) the expected profit from a criminal transaction and (4) the opportunity cost of a criminal transaction. In this rational offender framework, a potential offender commits crimes when the expected benefits of offending outweigh the expected costs. Changes in any one of these variables will affect the crime rate. Public policies designed to reduce externalities associated with criminal offending typically seek to increase the probability an offender is captured and the severity of the sanction. Thus, relatively little scholarly attention has focused on the effects of changes in the opportunity cost and profit for potential offenders. We posit that increases in crime- particularly robbery-in the United States in 2005 and 2006 were caused by an exogenous shock to the crime market that increased the expected profit of a criminal transaction, concurrently decreasing the degree to which potential victims engage in private precautions. We present evidence that increases in violent offending in the United States in 2005 and 2006 are consistent with a secular change in the behavior of potential victims, specifically in the increased propensity of potential victims to carry valuable iPods and other personal media devices. In such cases, standard policy instruments used to effect a reduction in crime may be insufficient or less than optimally efficient. INTRODUCTION Neoclassical economic theory posits that there is a market for crime that * John K. Roman is a senior research associate at the Urban Institute. He received a bachelor's degree in political science from Kenyon College and a Master's in Public Policy from the University of Michigan. Aaron Chalfin is a research associate at the Urban Institute. He received a bachelor's in Industrial and Labor Relations from Cornell University and a master's in International and Development Economics from Yale University. 0 2008, John K. Roman & Aaron Chalfin. 1149

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Contact us for annual subscription options:

Contact Us

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most