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29 Geo. Immigr. L.J. 501 (2014-2015)
Climate Change's First Casualties: Migration and Disappearing States

handle is hein.journals/geoimlj29 and id is 511 raw text is: 







                               NOTES







     CLIMATE CHANGE'S FIRST CASUALTIES:
     MIGRATION AND DISAPPEARING STATES


                              REED KOENIG*


   Climate change, in some regions, has aggravated conflict over scarce
   land, and could well trigger large-scale migration in the decades
   ahead. And rising sea levels put at risk the very survival of all small
   island states. These and other implications for peace and security have
   implications for the United Nations itself 1
                                                          -Ban Ki-moon


                               INTRODUCTION

   The International Organization for Migration (IOM) forecasts between
twenty-five million to one billion climate change migrants by 2050.2 The
Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) estimates that there will be 150
million.3 Oxford Professor Norman Myers believes that there will be 200
million.4 Clearly, while there is debate over the exact amount, these estimates
are on a massive scale, equaling at least 1.5% of the estimated 2050 world



  * J.D. Candidate, 2016, Georgetown University Law Center; B.A. Religion, Political Sci-
ence, 2010, University of Rochester. © 2016, Reed Koenig.
  1. U.N. Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, Secretary- General's remarks to Security Council on
Maintenance of International Peace and Security: New Challenges to International Peace and
Security and Conflict Prevention, UNITED NATIONS (Nov. 23, 2011), http://www.un.org/sg/statements/
?nid-5704.
  2. Migration and Climate Change, INT'L ORG. FOR MIGRATION (2008), available at http://www.
iom.cz/files/Migration and ClimateChange_-_IOMMigrationResearchSeries No 31.pdf (last
visited Jan. 2, 2015).
  3. John Vidal, Global warming could create 150 million climate refugees by 2050, GUARDIAN,
(Nov. 2, 2009, 7:05 PM), http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/nov/03/global-warming-
climate-refugees.
  4. Max Jerneck, Policy Responses to Climate Refugees: What Are Governments Doing?, CLIMATE
INST. (Mar. 2009), http://www.climate.org/topics/environmental-security/climate-refugee-policy.
html (last visited Jan. 3, 2015).

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