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163 World Affs. 163 (2000-2001)
The Road to Peace?: The Good Friday Agreement and the Conflict in Northern Ireland

handle is hein.journals/wrldaf163 and id is 177 raw text is: 163 Vol. 163 No. 4 Spring 2001 The Road to Peace? THE GOOD FRIDAY AGREEMENT AND THE CONFLICT IN NORTHERN IRELAND By STEFAN WOLFF T he conflict in Northern Ireland is one caused by incompatible conceptions of national belonging and the means to realize them. The conceptions are a united Ireland, pur- sued by Nationalists and Republicans, and con- tinued strong constitutional links between the province and the United Kingdom, desired by Unionists and Loyalists. Historically, these tra- ditions have been associated with Catholicism and Protestantism. Labels have played a signifi- cant role in the conflict; they have made possi- ble the systematic pursuit of discrimination and segregation. Yet, this has not made the conflict an ethno-religious one. The same holds true for language. Although less significant, the equality and preservation of Gaelic and Ulster Scots have mobilized some sections of the population in Northern Ireland, yet overall, the conflict is not ethno-linguistic either. Similar cases could be made for other dimensions of the conflict. What they all have in common is that they have polar- ized Northern Ireland's society for decades, leaving no room for cross-cutting cleavages and eventually aligning all of the dimensions of the conflict behind two fundamentally different conceptions of national belonging. Defining the Northern Ireland conflict as an ethno-national one has important implications for analysis of the conflict and attempts to set- tle it, as well as for identifying suitable com- parative cases. Causes for failure and success in conflict resolution need to be sought at more than one level. Although the situation in North- ern Ireland is of great significance, it must not be seen in isolation from the political processes in the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ire- land. Increasingly over the past two decades, factors in the international context-interna- tional connections of paramilitary groups, the influence of diasporas, and the consequences of European integration-have become more important. The interplay between Northern Ire- land, the Republic of Ireland, the United King- dom, and the international context can explain why the various conflict resolution attempts that have been made ever since the conflict in Northern Ireland escalated violently have faced extreme difficulties in negotiation and imple- mentation. This only changed with the Good Friday Agreement concluded in April 1998. After more than two years, it appears that despite numerous difficulties facing its support- ers, the agreement provides sufficient stability and flexibility to allow a political process to take place in Northern Ireland that is regarded by the vast majority of the population as repre- sentative of its interests. In this article, I analyze more than thirty years of unsuccessful conflict management in Northern Ireland that preceded the Good Fri- day Agreement. Following a brief exploration of the debate about the nature of the Northern Ireland conflict and the solution it requires, I trace the various attempts to settle the conflict, from the Sunningdale Agreement of 1973 to the Anglo-Irish Agreement of 1985, and finally to the Good Friday Agreement. This makes it possible to assess the reasons for the success so far of the Good Friday Agreement and its future prospects. THE CONFLICT ABOUT THE CONFLICT AND ITS SOLUTIONS Explanations of the Northern Ireland conflict vary widely between and within the two princi- pal communities in Northern Ireland.' General- ly, a line can be drawn between external and internal accounts. The Nationalists, and espe- cially Republicans, contend that the involve- ment of the British state in what is essentially described as internal Irish affairs is the major cause of the conflict; the Unionist and Loyalist Stefan Wolff is a lecturer in German studies at the University of Bath, England.

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