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47 N.Y.U. J. Int'l L. & Pol. 439 (2014-2015)
Contemporary Deterrence Theory and Counterterrorism: A Bridge Too Far

handle is hein.journals/nyuilp47 and id is 447 raw text is: CONTEMPORARY DETERRENCE THEORY AND COUNTERTERRORISM: A BRIDGE TOO FAR? ALEX WILNER* 1. INTRODUCTION ............................... 439 II. DETERRING TERRORISM: A CUMULATIVE RESEARCH PROGRAM .................................... 442 111. THEORETICAL CONCERNS: CONCEPTUAL DISTINCTION ................................. 451 IV. PRACTICAL CONCERNS: COERCIVE RESTRAINT ...... 457 V. EMPIRICAL CONCERNS: UNKNOWN UNKNOWNS .... 460 I. INTRODUCTION Deterrence theory is experiencing a renaissance. After nearly two decades of relative neglect following the end of the Cold War, we are witnessing today a flourishing of theoretical, empirical, and policy-relevant work on all things deterrence. Indeed, today's fourth wave of deterrence scholarship com- bines and incorporates an impressive array of disparate re- search on the subject. Deterrence theory is being applied to a variety of sub-state and non-state security concerns, like insur- gency, terrorism, radicalization, organized transnational crime, cyber insecurity, and piracy. More traditional inter-state security dilemmas, stemming from rogue regimes, nuclear and missile proliferation, and recent advances in missile tech- nology and defense, have also been added to the deterrence agenda. Coercive processes, like punishment, denial, delegi- timization, dissuasion, and inducement-as well as concepts like extended deterrence and cumulative deterrence-are likewise being explored in new and exciting ways.' In short, * Norman Paterson School of International Affairs, Carleton Univer- sity, Canada. 1. See, e.g., ANDREw R. MORRAL & BRIAN A. JACKSON, UNDERSTANDING THE ROLE OF DETERRENCE IN COUNTERTERRORISM SECURITY (2009); Lee Dutter & Ofira Seliktar, To Martyr or Not To Martyr: fihad Is the Question, What Policy Is the Answer?, 30 STUD. CONFLICT & TERRORISM 429 (2007); Jerry Mark Long & Alex Wilner, Delegitimizing al-Qaida: Defeating an 'Army Whose Men Love Death, 39 INT'L SEC. 126 (2014); Miroslav Nincic, Getting What You Want: Positive Inducement in International Relations, 35 INT'L SEC. 138 (2010); Thomas Rid, Deterrence Beyond the State: The Israeli Experience, 33 CONTEMP. SEC. POL'v 124 439 Imaged with Permission of N.Y.U. Journal of International Law and Politics

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