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90 Ind. L.J. 695 (2015)
Can Judges Make Reliable Numeric Judgments: Distorted Damages and Skewed Sentences

handle is hein.journals/indana90 and id is 723 raw text is: Can Judges Make Reliable Numeric Judgments? Distorted Damages and Skewed Sentences JEFFREY J. RACHLINSKI, ANDREW J. WISTRICH & CHRIS GUTHRIE* In a series of studies involving over six hundred trial judges in three countries, we demonstrate that trial judges' civil damage awards and criminal sentences are subject to influences that make them erratic. We found that the presence of misleading numeric reference points (or anchors) affected judges' decisions in a series of hypothetical cases. Specifically, judges imposed shorter sentences when assigning sentences in months rather than in years; awarded higher amounts of compensatory damages when informed of a cap on damage awards; imposed different sentences depending upon the sequence in which criminal cases were presented to them; and were influenced by a plaintiff's reference to a damage award seen on a court TV show. Taken together, the results suggest that unless judges take steps to reduce their susceptibility to anchors, their awards and sentences are apt to be highly unreliable. We also suggest how judges can safeguard against these influences and assign more stable awards and sentences. IN TRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 695 I. EVIDENCE OF ARBITRARINESS: ANCHORING AND SCALING ................................ 701 II. ANCHORING AND JUDGES .................................................................................. 706 III. THE CURRENT STUDY ...................................................................................... 710 A . STUDY 1: SCALING EFFECTS .................................................................... 711 B . STUDY 2: D AM AGE CAPS ......................................................................... 718 C. STUDY 3: ORDER EFFECTS ....................................................................... 724 D. STUDY 4: DEBIASING ....................................... 731 IV . IM PLICA TION S .................................................................................................. 736 C ON CLU SION .......................................................................................................... 739 INTRODUCTION How many words, on average, did law review articles published in 2012 contain? Before you answer, was it more or less than 11,432,839 words? The word count in law reviews is high, but that is a ridiculous estimate. Even though a correct, objectively determinable answer exists, and 11,432,839 is a ridiculously high estimate, contemplating that ridiculously high reference point is apt to influence estimates of the actual word count. Psychologists refer to the reliance on numeric reference points as a means of making a numeric judgment as anchoring and adjustment, or simply anchoring.' Anchoring exerts a powerful effect on * Rachlinski is a Professor of Law at Cornell Law School; Wistrich is a Magistrate Judge in the United States District Court for the Central District of California; Guthrie is Dean and John Wade-Kent Syverud Professor of Law at Vanderbilt Law School. 1. See Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 185 ScI. 1124, 1128 (1974) (describing anchoring).

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