One Man, 3.312 Votes: A Mathematical Analysis of the Electoral College
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ONE MAN, 3.312 VOTES:
A MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE
JOHN F. BANZHAF III
The significant standard for measuring . . . voting power, as
Mr. Banzhaf points out, is . . his [voting member's]
'ability ***, by his vote, to affect the passage or defeat of a
measure .
In order to measure the mathematical voting power...
it would be necessary to have the opinions of experts based
upon computer analyses.'
I. INTRODUCTION
N THE WAKE of the Supreme Court's reapportionment decisions
Congress is now seriously considering several proposals to abolish
the Electoral College and to replace it with one of a number of alterna-
tive plans.2 The ensuing discussion of this issue has been heated, and
even the United States Chamber of Commerce and the American Bar
Association have taken public stands.3 Sentiment for some change in
t Member of the New York and District of Columbia Bars. B.S.E.E., Massa-
chusetts Institute of Technology, 1962; LL.B., Columbia University, 1965. Much of
the material in this article was originally presented by the author in testimony before
the Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments of the United States Senate on
July 14, 1967.
1. Iannucci v. Board of Supervisors, 20 N.Y.2d 244, 251-53, 229 N.E.2d 195,
198-99, 282 N.Y.S.2d 502, 507-09 (1967).
2. For the actual bills and an explanation of the proposed amendments see
pp. 317-22 infra.
One interesting application of the reapportionment decisions in this area was
a suit by the State of Delaware in the United States Supreme Court against all of
the other states. Delaware v. New York, 385 U.S. 895 (1966). Although Delaware
recognized that the entire Electoral College system could be modified only by consti-
tutional amendment, it asked the Court to outlaw the unit-vote or winner take all
system of casting electoral votes by which all of a state's votes, by law, go to the
candidate receiving the greatest number of popular votes. It claimed that the effect
of that system was to disadvantage voters in the less populous states. The arguments
were based in part on the author's techniques. See Motion for Leave to File Com-
plaint, Complaint and Brief at 83-85, Delaware v. New York, 385 U.S. 895 (1966).
The Supreme Court declined to hear the case, apparently on procedural grounds.
This analysis supports Delaware's claim that its citizens have far less than
average voting power but for reasons other than those stated in the complaint and
brief. However it also shows that two remedies tentatively proposed - a propor-
tional or a district system - would only create new and even greater inequalities.
3. The Chamber of Commerce of the United States, following a policy
referendum of its member organizations, Jan. 31 [1966] announced it favored
abolishing the electoral college and shifting to either a nationwide popular vote
or a district system of choosing Presidential electors. The final vote of the
Chamber members for approving the new policy position was 3,877 (91.5 percent)
in favor and 362 K8.5 percent) opposed.
1966 CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY ALMANAC 496.
A special Commission on Electoral College Reform of the American Bar
Association recommended in January 1967 that the President and Vice President be
elected as a team by a national popular vote and that the Electoral College be
abolished. The Commission terms the present system archaic, undemocratic, complex,
[VOL. 13 : p. 303](ViewImageLocal?handle=hein.journals/vllalr13&div=20&collection=&method=preview&ext=.png&size=3)
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One Man, 3.312 Votes: A Mathematical Analysis of the Electoral College
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