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13 J. Contemp. Health L. & Pol'y 299 (1996-1997)
Society and the Not-so-New Genetics: What Are We Afraid of - Some Future Predictions from a Social Scientist

handle is hein.journals/jchlp13 and id is 333 raw text is: ARTICLES SOCIETY AND THE NOT-SO-NEW GENETICS: WHAT ARE WE AFRAID OF? SOME FUTURE PREDICTIONS FROM A SOCIAL SCIENTIST Dorothy C. Wertz, Ph.D.* I. INTRODUCTION: THROUGH A GLASS DARKLY The Human Genome Project promises to identify each of the approxi- mately 100,000 genes comprising the human genome. It also promises to sequence each gene, that is, list the order in which the four base pro- teins are arranged on each gene, a list that may easily be 10,000 letters long. The Human Genome Project (HGP) probably will be completed by 2006, ahead of schedule.' It may take another 100 years, however, to figure out what each gene does in regard to the development and func- tioning of normal individuals. Only then will there be widespread ther- apeutic payoff from the project. In the meantime, there will be an increasing number of tantalizing bits of diagnostic information, most ac- companied by a measure of uncertainty. Therapies that replace, supple- ment, or block the products made by malfunctioning genes, usually along * Senior Scientist, The Shriver Center, Waltham, Mass. This Article was supported by grant R01-HG00540-02 from the Ethical, Legal, and Social Implications Branch of the National Center for Human Genome Research (National Institutes of Health) and con- tract N01-HD-1-3136 from the Mental Retardation and Developmental Disorders Branch of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (National Institutes of Health). 1. For the estimated completion in 2005, see G.P. Schuler et al., A Gene Map of the Human Genome, 274 Sci. 540, 540-45 (1996). The original estimate was that the genome would be mapped (genes roughly located on the chromosomes) by the year 2000, and sequenced (the order of the protein bases: adenine, thymine, quanine, and cytosine in each gene identified) by the year 2005. See DANIEL J. KELVES & LEROY HARD, THE CODE OF CODES: SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIAL ISSUES IN THE HUMAN GENOME PROJECT 30 (1992). For the original estimate of completion of both mapping and sequencing by 2005, see Eric S. Larder, The New Genomes: Global Views of Biology, 274 ScI. 536, 536-37 (1996).

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