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66 N.Y.U. Ann. Surv. Am. L. 129 (2010-2011)
Grass Root Bureaucrats: How Prediction Markets Can Incentive Citizens to Fill ESA Data Gaps

handle is hein.journals/annam66 and id is 135 raw text is: GRASS ROOT BUREAUCRATS: HOW PREDICTION MARKETS CAN INCENTIVIZE CITIZENS TO FILL ESA DATA GAPS DANIEL R. ARX* INTRODUCTION Prediction markets,' which allow participants to place bets on the probability of a particular event, have been used with great suc- cess in the election context. Virtually ubiquitous during the 2008 election, prediction markets were used to forecast the chances of a particular candidate winning the election, and were often used by Internet pundits to keep score of the polls throughout the run-up to November 4th.2 Though the markets do not facilitate a formal, top-down style of information collection, the final election predic- tions still turned out to be quite accurate.3 Thus, prediction markets are clearly a valuable tool in the American electoral context. But do prediction markets have value * New York University School of Law, J.D. Candidate, 2010; Washington University in St. Louis, B.A., 2007. Many thanks to Professor Katrina Wyman for providing guidance and encouragement throughout the project. I also appreciate the support of Professor Oren Bar-Gill and the Lederman/Milbank Fellowship in Law and Economics. Finally, thanks to the editors of the NYU Annual Survey of American Law for their hard and careful work. 1. I will use the term prediction market throughout this Note, but other scholars have referred to the same institutions as information markets, decision markets, or ideas future markets. Tom W. Bell, Prediction Markets for Promoting the Progress of Science and the Useful Arts, 14 GEO. MASON L. REv. 37, 39 (2006). 2. See, e.g., Barack Obama Beating Hillary Clinton In Intrade Prediction Market, THE HUFFINGTON POST, Feb. 7, 2008, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/ 07/barack-obama-beating-hill-n_85489.html; Paul Krugman, The Conscience of a Liberal, http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/even-odds/ (Sept. 10, 2008, 15:50 EST); Posting of eyesonobama to Daily Kos, http://www.dailykos.com/ story/2008/10/28/174032/13/743/645054 (Oct. 28, 2008, 14:50 PST). 3. Intrade, the most popular prediction site for political wagering, predicted the electoral outcome of the United States presidential election almost exactly. Its only mishaps were Indiana and Missouri, although the latter was forecasted as a virtual toss-up. Compare Intrade, US Election 2008 Historical Data, http:// www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/intradeTV/ (last visited Apr. 9, 2010) (click on the graph below to see how Intrade forecasted the electoral outcome of each state over time; blue states signify an Obama victory and red states signify a McCain victory), with New York Times, Election Results 2008, http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/ results/president/map.html (last visited Mar. 29, 2009). 129 Imaged with Permission of N.Y.U. Annual Survey of American Law

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