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94 Foreign Aff. 33 (2015)
Iraq in Pieces

handle is hein.journals/fora94 and id is 1271 raw text is: Iraq in Pieces Breaking Up to Stay Together Ali Khedery merican leaders contemplat- ing Iraq have made a habit of substituting unpleasant realities with rosy assessments based on question- able assumptions. In 1991, after the Gulf War, the George H. W. Bush adminis- tration hoped that Iraqis would rise up against Saddam Hussein and encouraged them to do so, only to abandon them to the Republican Guard. In 1998, President Bill Clinton signed the Iraq Liberation Act, officially embracing regime change and transferring millions of dollars to an Iranian-backed convicted embezzler, Ahmed Chalabi. In 2003, the George W. Bush administration assumed that toppling Saddam would lead to stability rather than chaos when the U.S. military shocked and awed its way to Baghdad. In 2005, as the country descended into violence, Vice President Dick Cheney insisted that the insurgency was in its last throes. In 2010, still flushed with the success of Bush's surge, Vice President Joe Biden forecast that President Barack Obama's Iraq policy was going to be one of the great achievements of this admin- istration, lauding Iraqis for using the ALl KHEDERY is Chair and CEO of Dragoman Partners. From 2003 to 2010, he was a special assistant to five U.S. ambassadors in Iraq and a senior adviser to three chiefs of U.S. Central Command. Follow him on Twitter @akhedery. political process, rather than guns, to settle their differences. And in 2012, even as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was running an increasingly authoritarian and dysfunctional regime, the administra- tion continued its happy talk. Many predicted that the violence would return and Iraq would slide back toward sectar- ian war, said Antony Blinken, then Biden's national security adviser. Those predictions proved wrong. Today, of course, the Iraqi army has all but collapsed, despite some $25 billion in U.S. assistance. Shiite militants who have sworn allegiance to Iran's supreme leader operate with impunity. And the Islamic State (or isis) dominates more than a third of Iraq and half of Syria. Obama's successor will thus certainly earn the distinction of becoming the fifth consecutive president to bomb Iraq. Still, the next resident of the White House can choose to avoid the mistakes of his or her predecessors by refusing to unconditionally empower corrupt and divisive Iraqi leaders in the hope that they will somehow create a stable, prosperous country. If Iraq continues on its current downward spiral, as is virtu- ally certain, Washington should accept the fractious reality on the ground, abandon its fixation with artificial borders, and start allowing the various parts of Iraq and Syria to embark on the journey to self-determination. That process would no doubt be rocky and even bloody, but at this point, it represents the best chance of containing the sectarian violence and protecting the remainder of the Middle East from still further chaos. DECLINE AND FALL Since the founding of modern Iraq in 1920, the country has rarely witnessed November/December 2015 33

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