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24 Brown J. World Aff. 105 (2017-2018)
Contemporary War and the Crisis of Human Protection

handle is hein.journals/brownjwa24 and id is 105 raw text is: Contemporary War and the Crisis of Human Protection ALEX J. BELLAMY JUST A FEW YEARS AGO, a flurry of publications proclaimed that international society was winning the war on war, that human societies were becoming ever more peaceful, and that international activism in support of peace was having a decisive impact.' Over the preceding two decades, both the incidence and lethality of armed conflict had been in steady decline, which prompted renewed speculation about the obsolescence of major war.2 Regions once blighted by armed conflict, genocide, and mass atrocities, such as East Asia, moved toward sustainable peace.3 Much of this progress was underpinned by an emergent in- ternational human protection regime (IHPR): a complex of norms, institutions, 105 and practices focused on the minimization of mass atrocity and suffering in war, and on the protection of vulnerable populations.4 This regime made it more difficult-though not impossible-for actors to achieve their goals by targeting civilians, and more likely that international society would impose costs for such crimes and take action to protect the intended victims.5 However, since the start of the Arab Spring in early 2011, trends have moved in the opposite direction. The number of armed conflicts has increased. Some reports suggest a 600-fold increase in the annual number of civilian casual- ties in war. Atrocities are committed regularly with seeming impunity in Syria, Yemen, Iraq, South Sudan, and elsewhere. Displacement-both internal and international-has reached a level not seen since the end of the Second World War. Wherever we look, the forces that promoted human protection and the constructive management of difference over the past few decades are in retreat. Meanwhile, the forces of racism, xenophobia, and nationalism are on the march ALEx J. BELLAMY is a non-resident senior adviser working on the Providing for Peacekeeping program. He is currently Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies and Director of the Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect at The University of Queensland. Prior to moving to Australia, he worked at the United Kingdom's Joint Services Command and Staff College. Copyright © 2017 by the Brown journal ofWorldAffairs FALL/WINTER 2017 * VOLUME XXIV, ISSUE I

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