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61 Vand. L. Rev. 199 (2008)
The Individualization Fallacy in Forensic Science Evidence

handle is hein.journals/vanlr61 and id is 211 raw text is: The Individualization Fallacy in
Forensic Science Evidence
Michael J. Saks* & Jonathan J. Koehler*
I.      FOREWORD: THE TWO STEPS IN FORENSIC
IDENTIFICATION       .................................................................. 199
II.     THE INDIVIDUALIZATION FALLACY ...................................... 203
A.       Reliance on the Notion of Individualization ........... 205
B.       Origins and Evolution of the
Notion of Individualization ..................................... 207
III.    UNPROVED AND PERHAPS UNPROVABLE .............................. 208
IV .     O LD  N EW S  ........................................................................... 214
V .      W HAT   TO  D O  ........................................................................ 216
A .      The  P resent  .............................................................. 216
B .      The  F uture  ............................................................... 217
V I.     C ON CLU  SION  ........................................................................ 218
I. FOREWORD: THE TWO STEPS IN FORENSIC IDENTIFICATION
Forensic identification science involves two fundamental steps.
The first step is to compare a questioned item of evidence to an
exemplar from a known source and judge whether they appear so alike
that they can be said to match. The second step is to assess the
meaning of that reported match: What is the probability that the
questioned and the known originated from the same source?1
Professor of Law, Professor of Psychology, and Fellow of the Center for the Study of
Law, Science, and Technology, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law, Arizona State University.
Ph.D. 1975, Ohio State University; M.S.L. 1985, Yale Law School.
..   Professor of Law, Sandra Day O'Connor College of Law and W.P. Carey School of
Business, Arizona State University. Ph.D. 1989, University of Chicago.
1.  From an evidentiary value perspective, the two steps that we identify might be referred
to as reliability and diagnosticity, respectively. See generally DAVID A. SCHUM, EVIDENTIAL
FOUNDATIONS OF PROBABILISTIc REASONING (1994). The first step involves the reliability of the
evidence because it concerns the value of the expert's testimony for establishing that the
questioned and the known samples do, in fact, share characteristics. The second step involves the
diagnosticity of the evidence because it concerns the value of the match conclusion for drawing
an inference that the questioned and known samples share a common source.
199

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