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15 Regulation 87 (1992)
Global Warming: The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus

handle is hein.journals/rcatorbg15 and id is 89 raw text is: Global Warming The Origin and Nature of the Alleged Scientific Consensus Richard S. Lindzen Most of the literate world today regards global warming as both real and dan- gerous. Indeed, the diplomatic activity concerning warming might lead one to believe that it is the major crisis confronting mankind. The June 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, focused on international agreements to deal with that threat, and the heads of state from dozens of countries attended. I must state at the outset, that, as a scientist, I can find no substantive basis for the warming scenarios being popularly described. Moreover, according to many studies I have read by economists, agronomists, and hydrologists, there would be little difficulty adapt- ing to such warming if it were to occur. Such was also the conclusion of the recent National Research Council's report on adapting to global change. Many aspects of the catastrophic scenario have already been largely discounted by the scien- tific community. For example, fears of massive sea-level increases accompanied many of the early discussions of global warming, but those esti- mates have been steadily reduced by orders of magnitude, and now it is widely agreed that even the potential contribution of warming to sea-level rise would be swamped by other more important factors. Richard S. Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. To show why I assert that there is no substantive basis for predictions of sizeable global warming due to observed increases in minor greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlo- rofluorocarbons, I shall briefly review the science associated with those predictions. Summary of Scientific Issues Before even considering greenhouse theory, it may be helpful to begin with the issue that is almost always taken as a given-that carbon diox- ide will inevitably increase to values double and even quadruple present values. Evidence from the analysis of ice cores and after 1958 from direct atmospheric sampling shows that the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has been increasing since 1800. Before 1800 the density was about 275 parts per million by volume. Today it is about 355 parts per million by volume. The increase is generally believed to be due to the combination of increased burning of fossil fuels and before 1905 to defores- tation. The total source is estimated to have been increasing exponentially at least until 1973. From 1973 until 1990 the rate of increase has been much slower, however. About half the production of car- bon dioxide has appeared in the atmosphere. Predicting what will happen to carbon dioxide over the next century is a rather uncertain matter. By assuming a shift toward the increased use of coal, rapid advances in the third world's standard CATO REVIEW OF BUSINESS & GOVERNMENT 87

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