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90 Foreign Aff. 95 (2011)
The Dying Bear - Russia's Demographic Disaster

handle is hein.journals/fora90 and id is 1071 raw text is: The Dying Bear Russia's Demographic Disaster Nicholas Eberstadt DECEMBER MARKS the 20th anniversary of the end of the Soviet dictatorship and the beginning of Russia's postcommunist transition. For Russians, the intervening years have been full of elation and promise but also unexpected trouble and disappointment. Perhaps of all the painful developments in Russian society since the Soviet collapse, the most surprising-and dismaying-is the country's demographic decline. Over the past two decades, Russia has been caught in the grip of a devastating and highly anomalous peacetime population crisis. The country's population has been shrinking, its mortality levels are nothing short of catastrophic, and its human resources appear to be dangerously eroding. Indeed, the troubles caused by Russia's population trends-in health, education, family formation, and other spheres-represent a previously unprecedented phenomenon for an urbanized, literate society not at war. Such demographic problems are far outside the norm for both developed and less developed countries today; what is more, their causes are not entirely understood. There is also little evidence that Russia's political leadership has been able to enact policies that have any long-term hope of correcting this slide. This peacetime population crisis threatens Russia's economic outlook, its ambitions to modernize NICHOLAS EBERSTADT is Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute and a Senior Adviser at the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR). This essay is adapted from an NBR report on Russia's peacetime demographic crisis. 1951

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