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102 Foreign Aff. 70 (2023)
The Coming AI Economic Revolution: Can Artificial Intelligence Reverse the Productivity Slowdown?

handle is hein.journals/fora102 and id is 1184 raw text is: 'Ihe Coming Al Economic Revolution Can Artificial Intelligence Reverse the Productivity Slowdown? JAMES MANYIKA AND MICHAEL SPENCE In June 2023, a study of the economic potential of generative artificial intelligence estimated that the technology could add more than $4 trillion dollars annually to the global economy. This would be on top of the $11 trillion that nongenerative Ai and other forms of automation could contribute.These are enormous numbers: by comparison, the entire German economy-the world's fourth largest-is worth about $4 tril- lion. According to the study, produced by the McKinsey Global Institute, this astonishing impact will come largely from gains in productivity. At least in the near term, such exuberant projections will likely outstrip reality. Numerous technological, process-related, and organi- zational hurdles, as well as industry dynamics, stand in the way of an JAMES MANYIKA is Senior Vice President and President of Research, Technology, and Society at Google-Alphabet, a Distinguished Fellow at Stanford University's Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence Institute, and Chairman Emeritus at McKinsey Global Institute. MICHAEL SPENCE, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics, is a Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. FOREIGN AFFAIRS 70

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