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44 Washington Q. 7 (2021)

handle is hein.journals/wingtqurl44 and id is 1 raw text is: The Ibn Khaldun Trap and
Great Power Competition
with China
The return of great power rivalry has been the defining feature of the
21st century. Since the beginning of the new millennium, China and Russia have
openly defied the United States and upset the stability of the liberal international
order. Both China and Russia share physical and material attributes possessed by
the United States that are traditionally required for great power status: land mass,
a sea portal, a large population, and technology to field and develop a competitive
military capability. Most scholars and policymakers agree that China presents the
largest challenge to US interests and the US-led liberal international order.
Economic and military growth in China has been astounding, surpassing
Russian expansion. China's outward extension is not primarily resource-based
as is Russia's but multidimensional, posing a structural challenge to US military
and economic dominance.
Much ink has been spilled over the nature of US-China rivalry and whether
the two great powers are destined for war. Structural factors figure prominently
when predicting US-China relations. A famous deadly Greek trap describes
how the fear of a hegemonic power sparks catastrophic war with a rising
power. In the History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides writes, What made
Carla Norrlof is FIIA Visiting Professor at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Hel-
sinki, Senior Fellow at The Atlantic Council and at Massey College, Associate Professor at the
University of Toronto, and Research Associate at The Graduate Institute of Geneva. She can
be reached at carla.norrlof@utoronto.ca or followed on Twitter @CarlaNorrlof.
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribu-
tion-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/
4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in
any way.
The Washington Quarterly  44:1 pp. 7-28
https://doi.org/10.1080/0163660X.2021.1893022

THE WASHINGTON QUARTERLY * SPRING 2021

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