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2025 U. Ill. L. Rev. 1 (2025)

handle is hein.journals/unilllr2025 and id is 1 raw text is: 












THE PREDICTION SOCIETY: Al AND THE

PROBLEMS OF FORECASTING THE

FUTURE


                                                          Hideyuki  Matsumi*
                                                          Daniel  J. Solove**


        Predictions about the future have been made since the earliest days of
   humankind,  but today, we are living in a brave new  world of prediction.
   Today's predictions are produced by machine  learning algorithms that an-
   alyze massive quantities of personal data. This type of algorithm is com-
   monly referred to as artificial intelligence (AI). Increasingly, important
   decisions about people are being made based  on these algorithmic predic-
   tions.
        Algorithmic predictions are a type of inference. Many laws struggle
   to account for inferences, and even when they do, the laws lump all infer-
   ences together. But as we argue  in this Article, predictions are different
   from other inferences. Predictions raise several unique problems that cur-
   rent law is ill-suited to address. First, algorithmic predictions create a fos-
   silization problem because they reinforce patterns in past data and can fur-
   ther solidify bias and  inequality from  the  past. Second,  algorithmic
   predictions often raise an unfalsifiability problem. Predictions involve an
   assertion about future events. Until these events happen, predictions re-
   main unverifiable, resulting in an inability for individuals to challenge them
   as false. Third, algorithmic predictions can involve a preemptive interven-
   tion problem, where decisions or interventions render it impossible to de-
   termine whether the predictions would have come true. Fourth, algorithmic
   predictions can lead to a self-fulfilling prophecy problem where they ac-
   tively shape the future they aim to forecast.
        More  broadly, the rise of algorithmic predictions raises an overarch-
   ing concern: Algorithmic predictions not only forecast the future but also
   have the power  to create and control it. The increasing pervasiveness of

   *   Hideyuki (Yuki) Matsumi. PhD candidate/researcher at the Research Group on Law Science, Tech-
nology and Society (LSTS) of the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB). Member of the New York Bar. I would like
to thank everyone who patiently listened and waited for me.
   **  Eugene L. and Barbara A. Bernard Professor of Intellectual Property and Technology Law, George
Washington University Law School. Thanks to my Travis Yuille for excellent research. We both want to thank
Dan Bouk, Dan Burk, Jessica Eaglin, Oscar Gandy, Talia Gillis, Woodrow Hartzog, Mireille Hildebrandt, Alicia
Solow-Niederman, and the participants at the Privacy Law Scholars Conference 2023 for very helpful comments.
We also thank everybody in the LSTS.


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