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104 Pol. Sci. Q. 1 (1989-1990)

handle is hein.journals/pclscceqry104 and id is 1 raw text is: The 1988 Elections: Continuation of The Post-New Deal System EVERETT CARLL LADD Predictability was the most striking feature of the 1988 election. It had two separate bases. First, 1988 was an incumbents' election. Conditions prevailing throughout the year strongly encouraged a no response to the ques- tion, is it time for a change? A second basis for its predictability is that the elec- tion took place well into the latest of our country's great partisan transformations- this one having begun in the late 1960s. When major change is first evident in the parties and elections system, its central features-shifts in group ties to the political parties, issues cutting in novel directions, etc.- often startle us. But after we have seen them over a series of elections we take them as givens. That's what happened in 1988. The election told us little we didn't already know. Instead, it was confirming, or reaffirming. The New Deal era now seems as remote as the age of McKinley. THE IMMEDIATE SETTING From its beginning the 1988 presidential contest was waged against a backdrop that favored the Republicans. One element of this setting involved the status of the two-term incumbent president. During the last months of his presidency, Ronald Reagan was more popular than when he first took office. In the twelve months or so following the Iran-contra revelations, which broke with such political fury in November 1986, Reagan's popular standing clearly suffered. But by the end EVERETT CARLL LADD is professor of political science at the University of Connecticut and ex- ecutive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research. He writes frequently on political parties and electoral politics. His interpretations of the 1980 and 1984 elections appeared in the Spring 1981 and Spring 1985 issues of Political Science Quarterly. Political Science Quarterly Volume 104 Number 1 1989 1

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