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50 Colum. J. Env't L. 1 (2025)

handle is hein.journals/cjel50 and id is 1 raw text is: Toward a Future-Facing Climate Policy: Shifting the Focus from Emission Regulation to the Energy Transition Daniel A. Farber1 This Article provides a systems analysis of climate change policy that links together subsystems relating to innovation, energy economics, in- terestgroup politics, and government regulation. It is easy but mislead- ing to equate climate policy with emissions regulation. That is too nar- row a frame. We urgently need a new energy system because of climate change, but regulating carbon emissions is only one part of a bigger pro- ject. We cannot assume that as carbon emissions decline a new energy system will build itself-nor will society be willing to eliminate fossil fuels without confidence in their replacements. An effective climate policy requires much more than simply restrict- ing fossilfuels and hoping the market willfill the gap. The energy tran- sition requires incentivesfor energy research, development, and scaling up new energy technologies. For the energy transition to happen, we also need sufficiently large-scale deployment to trigger economies of scale and learning by doing. There is much to be gained, then, from shifting the paradigmfrom emissions reduction to the energy transition. To make a homely analogy: The reasonfor a kitchen renovation may be dry rot, and the firststep is ripping out rotten wood. But the point of the remodeling is putting in a new kitchen, not justgetting rid of the rot. I. Introduction ....................................................................................................... 2 II. Contrasting Paradigm s.......................................................................... . 7 A . Cap an d T rad e ........................................................................................ . 8 B. The Biden Spending Trilogy and Its Impacts ........................... 10 C. Im pacts on Carbon Em ission Levels..................................................14 D. Critiques of the IRA and of Green Industrial Policy More Broadly........................................................................................................... 20 1. Sho Sato Professor of Law and Faculty Director of the Center for Law, Energy, and the En- vironment, at the University of California, Berkeley. I am grateful to David Driesen, Adam Orford, and Daniel Walters for their very helpful comments on earlier drafts. 1

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