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25 Armed Forces & Soc'y 3 (1998-1999)

handle is hein.journals/amdfcsad25 and id is 1 raw text is: Fall1998 Volum25 ABSTRACTS NNmer I THE DEFINITE END OF THE MASS ARMY IN WESTERN EUROPE? 7 The era of mass armies in Western Europe will come to an end with the turn of the century even though not all of its nations will have given up conscription by the year 2000. This is the general conclusion that may be drawn from an analysis of structural indicators for the period from 1970 to 1995 and from an expert survey for fifteen Western European nations. The assumption stipulated by many military sociologists that socioeconomic mod- ernization would favor the trend to volunteer systems is only weakly supported by the data. Strategic and military goal-bound factors such as the loss of a direct military threat with the end of the Cold War, membership in NATO, and nonparticipation in international missions outside national territory seem to be more important for the disappearance of mass armies in Europe. BY KARL W. HALTINER THE U.S. AS A HOT ZONE: THE NECESSITY FOR MEDICAL DEFENSE 37 This article calls for awareness of the national security threat to the United States from emerging disease and ultimately suggests a response mechanism based upon exist- ing government resources, which the author calls medical defense. National security strategy is analyzed in the context of recognition of nontraditional threats in the midst of the Revolution in Security Affairs. Relevant governmental scientific strategies concern- ing emerging diseases are examined in order to develop the medical defense concept. The article further outlines the problem of medical defense in the format of threat, scenario, and mission analyses. Threat analysis concentrates on how deteriorating social and political conditions are enhancing the environment of emerging disease. Scenario analysis focuses on the effects of an attack from an emerging disease, with discussion of the deficiencies present in the U.S. public health system. Mission analysis demonstrates how the U.S. could prepare an adequate medical defense by aligning specialized military medical capability with those of the Centers for Disease Control. Finally, the formation, mission, and com- mand and control of a military unit formed specifically for medical defense are outlined. BY CHARLES T. EPPRIGHT DOES ENLISTMENT PROPENSITY PREDICT ACCESSION? HIGH SCHOOL SENIORS' PLANS AND SUBSEQUENT BEHAVIOR 59 This article examines how high school seniors' plans or propensity to serve in the armed forces relate to their actual enlistment. Longitudinal data were used from more than

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