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                                                                                                   January 29, 2019

China's Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products


United States and Chinese officials are engaged in talks to
resolve a trade conflict that began in 2018 and resulted in
the imposition of tariff hikes by the two countries on each
other's goods. The outcome of the talks could affect U.S.
agricultural and food exports. President Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping agreed on December 1, 2018, to
suspend additional planned increases in punitive and
retaliatory tariffs for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
During that meeting, China agreed to make substantial
purchases of U.S. agricultural products, according to the
White House.  Representatives from the Office of the U.S.
Trade Representative (USTR)  and other U.S. trade officials,
including the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA)
Under  Secretary for Trade and Foreign Affairs, held talks
with Chinese officials in Beijing on January 7-9, 2019, the
first formal meeting between the two countries since Trump
and Xi met the prior December. Purchases of U.S.
agricultural products were among the topics discussed in
Beijing.

China has levied retaliatory tariffs on almost all U.S.
agricultural and food exports, among other products, in
response to trade actions by the Trump Administration. In
spring 2018, the Trump Administration applied tariffs under
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 on all
imports of aluminum and steel products. The
Administration also applied tariffs to certain imports from
China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 in
response to China's intellectual property rights and
technology policies. All told, about 99% of the value of
U.S. food and agricultural exports are subject to China's
retaliatory tariffs. For more information on the retaliatory
tariffs imposed on U.S. food and agricultural exports by
China (and other retaliating countries), see CRS Report
R45448,  Profiles and Effects of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S.
Agricultural Exports.

Agricultural Trade with China
Since 2010, China has competed with Canada as the leading
market for U.S. agricultural and food exports (see Figure
1). However, the tariffs China imposed in 2018 caused
overall U.S. agricultural and food exports to China to
decline, largely due to a drop in exports of U.S soybeans,
according to USDA.  U.S. agricultural and food exports to
China in FY2018,  amounted to $16.3 billion (calendar year
2018 data are not available), a decline of about 25% from
FY2017.  In its trade forecast of November 29, 2018, USDA
projected that U.S. agricultural exports to China would fall
to about $9 billion in FY2019 due to the tariffs. It is unclear
when, or even whether, U.S. agricultural and food products
would regain their market share if China were to remove its
retaliatory tariffs.




                                            https://crsrepo


   Figure I. Leading Markets  for U.S. Agricultural and
   Food  Exports
   Calendar Years 2007-2017
      30

      25
      =20
    0
        15         1

      10
      5

      0
         2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
         -Canada   China -Mexico   European Union 28 -Japan

   Source: USDA Global Access Trading System (GATS). Accessed
   January 28, 2019. Values are not adjusted for inflation.

   China's Retaliatory Tariffs
   China has levied retaliatory tariffs of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%,
   and 25%-or   a combination of those amounts-of the value
   of the exported product on more than 800 U.S. food and
   agricultural products. The first retaliatory tariffs, which
   were in response to the Section 232 tariffs, went into effect
   on April 2, 2018, and were applied to about 90 food and
   agricultural products. China applied tariffs to more than 500
   additional food and agricultural products, including
   soybeans, on July 6, 2018, in response to the Section 301
   tariffs. On September 24, retaliatory tariffs were levied on a
   third tranche of about 350 additional food and agricultural
   products following an escalation in Section 301 tariffs by
   the United States. The products subject to retaliatory tariffs
   span all agricultural and food categories, including grains,
   meat and animal products, fruits and vegetables, seafood,
   and processed foods.

   Effects on U.S. Soybean   Exports
   China has levied retaliatory tariffs of 25% on U.S.
   soybeans, raising the total tariff rate to 27% and effectively
   restricting access to what was the largest U.S. export
   market for that crop in 2017. About one-half of all soybeans
   produced in the United States were exported prior to the
   application of the tariffs. Of those U.S. soybean exports,
   more than one-half-about $12 billion worth-were
   shipped to China in 2017, where they were used largely for
   animal feed.

   After China hiked its tariff on U.S. soybeans in early July
   2018, U.S. exports to China essentially halted. U.S. soybean
   exports for January through October 2018 were 63% lower
   than during that time period in 2017 (see Figure 2).
   Meanwhile, China has increased its soybean purchases from
   Brazil and elsewhere. U.S. soybean prices have declined by
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