About | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline Law Journal Library | HeinOnline
LOG IN
LOG IN

1 [1] (January 23, 2019)

handle is hein.crs/govydj0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Burma's Prospects for Peace in 2019 0 January 23, 2019 The announcement on December 21, 2018, by Burma's Commander-in-Chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, of a unilateral ceasefire in eastern (but not western) Burma has raised many questions about prospects for ending the nation's long-standing civil war. Some observers view the announcement as a possible breakthrough for the stalled peace process backed by Min Aung Hlaing and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi. Others see it as a ruse designed to promote discord among Burma's various ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), continue the military's military campaign in western Burma, and possibly set the stage for Min Aung Hlaing's political ambitions to be selected as Burma's next President in 2020. Both the Obama and Trump Administrations backed the peace process, both financially and as a matter of policy. The lack of significant progress in the negotiations and the escalation in fighting in 2018 has raised questions in Congress and elsewhere about the effectiveness of U.S. policy in Burma. Intensified Fighting in 2018 In 2018, fighting between the Burmese military, or Tatmadaw, and several EAOs escalated in Kachin and Shan States, and erupted in Chin, Karen (Kayin), and Rakhine States, dimming hopes for the peaceful resolution of Burma's 60-year civil war. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), fighting occurred in7 of Burma's 14 States or Regions in 2018 (see Figure 1). In Kachin State, the Tatmadaw launched an offensive against the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) that resulted in the internal displacement of over 5,000 civilians. According to some accounts, the Tatmadaw intentionally attacked civilians in villages, leading to comparisons with the brutal attacks on Rohingya villages in Rakhine State in late 2017. In Shan State, fighting between the Tatmadaw and the combined forces of the KIA, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) increased, while rival EAOs also clashed. As in Kachin State, the conflict has created thousands of internally displaced persons (IDPs). In Karen State, an apparent dispute over Tatmadaw road construction work led to new combat with Karen National Union (KNU) troops. Fighting between the KNU and the Tatmadaw had ceased following an October 2015 ceasefire. The civil war was brought to western Burma's Chin and Rakhine States when the Arakan Army (AA), an EAO established in 2009 to protect the Arakan (Rakhine) people from perceived oppression by the Tatmadaw, launched a series of attacks on security outposts and troops on patrol. The AA is also a member of a coalition with the KIA, MNDAA, and TNLA. Figure I. Map of Fighting in Burma in 2018 Conflict by State or Region Source: CRS; based on data from Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), accessed January 2019. Staled Peace Process In 2011, Burma's military junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), transferred power to a mixed civilian/military government headed by President Thein Sein, a retired general and ex-SPDC Prime Minister. As President, he initiated a peace process that called for the signing of a nationwide ceasefire agreement to be followed by negotiations over reform of the 2008 constitution. In October 2015, Thein Sein signed a ceasefire agreement with 8 of the more than 20 EAOs, but his subsequent efforts to get more EAOs to sign were unsuccessful. In November 2015, Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) won a supermajority of the seats in Burma's Union Parliament, raising hopes that they would offer greater autonomy for ethnic minorities and facilitate the peaceful resolution of nation's civil war. In her role as State Counselor, Aung San Suu Kyi chose to modify Thein Sein's peace process; she did so by adding the concept of Panglong Peace Conferences at which a broad spectrum of vested interests would discuss the terms of a ceasefire agreement and governance reform. The 3rd Panglong Peace Conference was held in July 2018 (six months after it was originally scheduled), but little progress was made in addressing the differences on the ittps://crsreports.congress.g

What Is HeinOnline?

HeinOnline is a subscription-based resource containing thousands of academic and legal journals from inception; complete coverage of government documents such as U.S. Statutes at Large, U.S. Code, Federal Register, Code of Federal Regulations, U.S. Reports, and much more. Documents are image-based, fully searchable PDFs with the authority of print combined with the accessibility of a user-friendly and powerful database. For more information, request a quote or trial for your organization below.



Short-term subscription options include 24 hours, 48 hours, or 1 week to HeinOnline.

Purchase Access

Already a HeinOnline Subscriber?

Log In

profiles profiles most