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1 [1] (February 26, 2025)

handle is hein.crs/govesps0001 and id is 1 raw text is: Congressional Research Service Informing the legislative debate since 1914 Updated February 26, 2025 Current Employment Survey Benchmark Revisions On February 7, 2025, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released annual benchmark revisions to official estimates of national-level nonfarm employment from April 2023 through October 2024. These revisions downwardly adjusted national nonfarm employment in March 2024 by 598,000 jobs (-0.4% of the revised employment level). BLS previously announced on August 21, 2024, that the preliminary estimate of these revisions would downwardly adjust national nonfarm employment by 818,000 jobs. This revision is larger than most recent benchmark revisions, and the announcement of the preliminary estimate attracted attention from Congress. This In Focus provides an overview of BLS annual benchmark revisions, which have been part of regular BLS employment estimation processes since 1935. Benchmark revisions incorporate less timely but more comprehensive data into employment estimates. nitia Employment Change Estimates BLS initially estimates month-to-month employment changes for the previous three months as part of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. These estimates rely on a survey of nonfarm establishments and models of employment in establishments that cannot be surveyed. Survey The CES survey, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, is a monthly survey of approximately 119,000 businesses and government agencies. The employers surveyed are randomly selected to represent all nonfarm employers by state, industry, and employer size categories. After selection, employers are surveyed for at least two years. Each month, BLS asks these employers how many civilians were on their payroll during the pay period that included the 12th day of the month. Employment reports received by the last Friday of the month are incorporated into first preliminary estimates, which BLS releases on the first Friday of the next month. Additional employment reports received in time for the following month's estimates are incorporated into revised, second preliminary estimates. Employment reports received from more employers responding to the survey in time for a third month of estimation are incorporated into third and final sample-based estimates for each month. Business Birth and Death Modeling E i. . Some businesses cannot be chosen for the CES survey because they are too new to be included. Other businesses do not answer the survey because they are no longer operating. Patterns of business openings and closings over the year vary by industry in predictable ways. BLS uses historical data to model employment changes due to business births and deaths and updates this model with new data every year. This modeled component is part of all national-level CES employment estimates (except during the COVID-19 pandemic, when use of the model was modified because business births and deaths were not following usual patterns). Seasonal Adjustment Some month-to-month changes in employment are part of seasonal patterns, such as the opening and closing of ski resorts as the seasons change. Seasonal employment patterns differ by industry. BLS uses historical data to model these patterns and produces both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted estimates of month-to-month changes. Benchmari ng The CES program produces estimates of month-to-month changes in the number of jobs soon after the end of each month. However, BLS revises these estimates of monthly employment changes based on additional data on overall civilian employment levels. Additiona Data BLS receives additional data on employment levels after publishing the survey-based CES estimates. Employers are required to report the number of workers in jobs covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI) on their payrolls to states every quarter. UI covers about 97% of nonfarm payroll employment in the United States. These payroll reports are then forwarded to BLS, which receives them several months after CES survey responses. BLS also receives periodic employment data for employers not covered by UI, such as railroads. These additional data sources provide information on the actual employment of all covered employers. They are not affected by which businesses respond to a survey or by the accuracy of models. BLS uses these additional data to further revise, or benchmark, estimates of employment. The same data are also used to produce the model of employment changes due to business births and deaths. Benchmark Process BLS uses the additional data to make a more accurate estimate of employment levels by industry for the previous March. The difference between the previous estimate of employment and the new, more accurate estimate is called the benchmark revision. At the time of the benchmark revision, estimates of employment changes in the 11 months before and 9 months after March are adjusted proportionately to match the new, more accurate March employment levels by industry. Benchmark Timing Benchmark employment estimates for the previous March are released in early February. However, in August BLS

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